Coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study
Coronary heart disease risk prediction in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study
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DOI：
10.1016/s0895-4356(03)00055-6
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发表时间：
2003-09-01
影响因子：
7.2
通讯作者：
Nieto, FJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chambless, LE;Folsom, AR;Nieto, FJ
使用社区动脉粥样硬化风险研究（ARIC）的数据估计冠心病（CHD）事件的风险预测功能，ARIC是一项前瞻性研究，1987-1989年从美国四个社区招募了15，792人，随访至1998年。通过将非传统危险因素和亚临床疾病标志物加入仅含传统危险因素的基本模型中，增加ROC曲线下面积，评估个体发生CHD的预测性。我们还评估了人群归因风险的增加。其他因素包括体重指数、腰臀比、运动指数、用力呼气量、血浆纤维蛋白原、因子VIII、血管性血友病因子和Lp（a）、心率、Keys评分、吸烟包年数和亚临床疾病标志物颈动脉内膜中层厚度。这些因素大大提高了对男性未来CHD的预测，但对女性的预测较少，并且也增加了归因风险。(C)2003年爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
Risk prediction functions for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) were estimated using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, a prospective study of CHD in 15,792 persons recruited in 1987-1989 from four U.S. communities, with follow-up through 1998. Predictivity of which individuals had incident CHD was assessed by increase in area under ROC curves resulting from adding nontraditional risk factors and markers of subclinical disease to a basic model containing only traditional risk factors. We also assessed the increase in population attributable risk. The additional factors were body mass index; waist-hip ratio; sport activity index; forced expiratory volume; plasma fibrinogen, factor VIII, von Willebrand factor, and Lp(a); heart rate; Keys score; pack-years smoking; and subclinical disease marker carotid intima-media thickness. These factors substantially improved prediction of future CHD for men, less for women, and also increased attributable risks. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.