Long-Term Immigration Projection Methods: Current Practice and How to Improve it
Long-Term Immigration Projection Methods: Current Practice and How to Improve it
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长期移民预测方法：当前实践以及如何改进
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Jackson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Howe;R. Jackson
关于国际移徙的假设是人口预测模块中日益重要的组成部分。然而，美国和国外的大多数官方移民预测都依赖于基于很少理论和几乎没有可定义方法的临时假设。本报告有三个目的：评估移民预测做法的现状;探讨关于移民的理论见解和实证研究;讨论如何利用这些见解和研究建立一个上级预测模式。第一章介绍了目前主要的国家和国际预测机构的预测方法，从美国人口普查局和美国社会保障局到联合国和世界银行。第二章审视了来自不同学科的社会科学家为解释国际移民流动而提出的一系列广泛的“理论框架”。它还调查了越来越多的经验文献，这些文献是关于在统计上检验这些理论在解释国际移徙历史趋势方面的力量的努力。第三章描述了我们提出的长期移民预测模型框架。该模型是“基于驱动因素”的，这意味着移民是根据观察到的移民行为与其他条件之间的关联来预测的，如人口、工资和生活水平、贸易和资本流动、年龄分布、教育、城市化和市场导向或“全球化”的多国趋势。我们的结论是，这种方法有可能大大改善对像美国这样的主要发达国家的净移民的长期预测。
Assumptions about international migration are an increasingly important component of the demographic projection module. Yet most official immigration projections both in the United States and abroad rely on ad-hoc assumptions based on little theory and virtually no definable methodology. The purpose of the present report is threefold: to assess the state of immigration projection practice; to explore theoretical insights and empirical research about immigration; and to discuss how these insights and research could be used to create a superior projection model. The first chapter describes the current projection methods of leading national and international projection-making agencies, from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Social Security Administration to the United Nations and the World Bank. The second chapter scans the wide array of “theoretical frameworks” that social scientists from a variety of disciplines have proposed to explain international migration flows. It also surveys the growing body of empirical literature on efforts to statistically test the power of these theories in explaining historical trends in international migration. The third chapter describes our proposed framework for a long-term immigration projection model. The model is “driver-based,” meaning that immigration is projected based on observed associations between migration behavior and other conditions, such as multinational trends in population, wages and living standards, trade and capital flows, age distribution, education, urbanization, and market orientation or “globalization.” We conclude that this approach has the potential to greatly improve long-term projections of net immigration to a major developed country like the United States.