Generating design reference years from the UKCP09 projections and their application to future air-conditioning loads
Generating design reference years from the UKCP09 projections and their application to future air-conditioning loads
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DOI：
10.1177/0143624411431775
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发表时间：
2012-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
H. Du;C. Underwood;J. Edge
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Du;C. Underwood;J. Edge
开发了一种方法来生成来自英国气候影响计划2009年(UKCP09)气候变化预测的未来设计参考年(DRY)数据，用于各种未来时间范围和碳排放假设。该方法选择三个接近极端的夏季月份和三个接近极端的冬季月份，并将它们编织成现有的测试参考年(Try)。使用与干球温度累积分布函数的第85个百分位数(大致相当于现有的英国建筑服务工程师学会[CIBSE]设计的夏季年份)和第99个百分位数进行比较的风险水平。与使用其他研究小组的替代方法产生的干物质进行了比较。这些数据被应用于各种非住宅案例研究建筑类型的未来空调(冷)负荷分析。应用于这些建筑的控制干式机组的模拟被用来开发一种基于回归的简化计算方法来预测未来的空调负荷。简化的模型适用于未来的天气数据而不损失精度，这使得在不需要进行广泛而复杂的能量模拟的情况下进行大量的未来冷负荷预测成为可能。实际应用：从全生命周期的角度为建筑物设计能源和舒适性服务变得越来越必要。为了辅助这一点，CIBSE未来的天气年可以用来建立到本世纪80年代的模拟。2009年6月，英国环境、食品和农村事务部(Defra)在英国气候影响方案(UKCIP)的支持下，使用概率方法发布了最新的气候变化预测。在未来，从大量的概率结果中选择设计数据的责任将落在设计师身上。这项工作开发了一种技术，可以在两个替代风险水平下选择称为干旱的设计天气数据，用于直到本世纪80年代的建筑模拟。还提出了一种简化的方法，允许从业者生成大量的概率设计冷负荷，而不需要执行广泛的模拟。
A method is developed to generate future design reference year (DRY) data from the United Kingdom Climate Impact Programme's 2009 (UKCP09) climate change projections for a variety of future time horizons and carbon emission assumptions. The method selects three near-extreme summer months and three near-extreme winter months and weaves them into an existing test reference year (TRY). Risk levels associated with the 85th percentile (broadly equivalent to existing Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers [CIBSE] design summer years) of the cumulative distribution function of dry-bulb temperature and, for comparison, the 99th percentile are used. A comparison is made with DRYs generated using alternative methods from other research groups. The data are applied to future air-conditioning (cooling) loads analysis for a wide range of non-domestic case study building types. Simulations using a control DRY set applied to these buildings are used to develop a simplified regression-based calculation method for predicting future air-conditioning loads. The simplified model is shown to be applicable to future weather data without loss of accuracy, which makes it possible to carry out large numbers of future cooling loads predictions without the need to perform extensive and complex energy simulations. Practical applications: It is becoming increasingly necessary to design energy and comfort services for buildings with a whole-life perspective. To assist with this, the CIBSE future weather years can be used for building simulations through to the 2080s. In June 2009, the UK’s Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) with the support of the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) published updated climate change projections using a probabilistic method. In future, the responsibility will rest with designers to select design data from a large number of probabilistic outcomes. This work develops a technique to select design weather data called a DRY at two alternative risk levels for use in building simulations through to the 2080s. A simplified method is also proposed to allow practitioners to generate large numbers of probabilistic design cooling loads without the need to perform extensive simulations.