Spatial asynchrony and periodic travelling waves in cyclic populations of field voles
Spatial asynchrony and periodic travelling waves in cyclic populations of field voles
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1998.0462
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发表时间：
1998-08-22
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
MacKinnon, JL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lambin, X;Elston, DA;MacKinnon, JL
我们证明了行波在北方英国野外田鼠的周期性种群中存在的证据，通过拟合简单的经验模型，以空间为参考的时间序列数据。人口周期大致同步，在所有的网站，但使用曼特尔相关性建议一个强大的空间格局沿沿着一个轴的投影线从北72度。然后，我们拟合了一个广义加性模型来记录种群密度，假设在一个空间维度上有固定形式的行波，其中每个地点的密度在时间上与标准密度-时间曲线偏移一个常数。我们假设该偏移量的大小将与任何给定站点与采样站点的质心之间的空间间隔成比例，其中间隔是站点之间在固定方向上的距离。在拟合这个模型之后，我们估计波以19 km/yr（-1）的平均速度从西向东移动，与北成78度角。游牧的鸟类捕食者，可以同步人口在大面积的稀缺和行波可能是由密度依赖的分散由田鼠和/或黄鼠狼，这两个行为在一个适当的小空间尺度上的捕食。
We demonstrate evidence for the presence of travelling waves in a cyclic population of field voles in northern Britain by fitting simple, empirical models to spatially referenced time series data. Population cycles were broadly synchronous at all sites, but use of Mantel correlations suggested a strong spatial pattern along one axis at a projection line 72 degrees from North. We then fitted a generalized additive model to log population density assuming a fixed-form travelling wave in one spatial dimension for which the density at each site was offset in time by a constant amount from a standard density-time curve. We assumed that the magnitude of this offset would be proportional to the spatial separation between any given site and the centroid of the sampling sites, where separation is the distance between sites in a fixed direction. After fitting this model, we estimated that the wave moved at an average speed of 19 km yr(-1) heading from West to East at an angle of 78 degrees from North. Nomadic avian predators which could synchronize populations over large areas are scarce and the travelling wave may be caused by density-dependent dispersal by field voles and/or predation by weasels, both of which act at a suitably small spatial scale.