Investigations of cattle herd breakdowns with bovine tuberculosis in four counties of England and Wales using VETNET data
Investigations of cattle herd breakdowns with bovine tuberculosis in four counties of England and Wales using VETNET data
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DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2005.05.005
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发表时间：
2005-09-12
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Cornell, SJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Green, LE;Cornell, SJ
从1986年到2000年初，对英格兰西南部以外的英格兰和威尔士四个县的农场进行了牛结核病（BTB）牛群分解（HBR）调查。使用了来自国家结核病检测历史数据库（VETNET）的数据。影响HBR的因素包括日历时间、牛群规模、试验牛数量、试验类型、试验间隔和农场的空间分组。在所有四个县，除常规牛群试验外的牛群试验均增加了HBR的风险。在所有县，HBR的风险随着日历时间的增加而增加，在什罗普郡，与1年的测试间隔相比，3年的测试间隔与HBR风险增加相关。在斯塔福德郡和苏塞克斯郡，与1年的测试间隔相比，4年的测试间隔与HBR的低风险相关。没有证据表明HBR在西格拉摩根（15-30公里半径内的空间风险相等）的空间聚类，什罗普郡（7-15公里）和苏塞克斯（5-10公里）的空间聚类证据较弱。在斯塔福德郡，有证据表明HBR的空间（2-4公里）和时间（3-4年）聚类。在确认HBR后，当地增加的检测率增加了感染牛群的检出率，但没有阻止四个县中的两个县（什罗普郡和斯塔福德郡）的局部传播，因为HBR率从1988年到2000年呈线性增加。主要结论是，传播既有本地成分，也有远距离成分。(c)2005 Elsevier B. V.保留所有权利。
Cattle herd breakdown (HBR) with bovine tuberculosis (BTB) was investigated for farms in four counties of England and Wales outside southwest England from 1986 to early 2000. Data from the national database of TB testing history (VETNET) were used. Factors that influenced HBR included calendar time, herd size, number of cattle tested, the test type, the inter-test interval and spatial grouping of farms. Herd tests other than routine herd tests had an increased risk of HBR in all four counties. In all counties, the risk of HBR increased with calendar time and in Shropshire a test interval of 3 years was associated with an increased risk of HBR compared with a 1-year test interval. In Staffordshire and Sussex, a 4-year test interval was associated with a lower risk of HBR compared with a 1-year test interval. There was no evidence of spatial clustering of HBR in West Glamorgan (equal spatial risk in a 15-30 km radius) and weak evidence of spatial clustering in Shropshire (7-15 km) and Sussex (5-10 km). In Staffordshire, there was evidence of spatial (2-4 km) and time (3-4 years) clustering of HBR. The locally increased rate of testing following a confirmed HBR increased the detection of infected herds but did not prevent local spread in two of the four counties (Shropshire and Staffordshire) since the rate of HBR increased linearly from 1988 to 2000. The main conclusion is that there were both local and distant components of spread. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.