Estimating the Vehicle‐Miles‐Traveled Implications of Alternative Metropolitan Growth Scenarios: A Boston Example
Estimating the Vehicle‐Miles‐Traveled Implications of Alternative Metropolitan Growth Scenarios: A Boston Example
复制标题
估计替代性大都市增长情景对车辆行驶里程的影响：以波士顿为例
DOI：
10.1111/tgis.12017
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Jingsi Xu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Ferreira;Mi Diao;Jingsi Xu
本研究展示了利用大规模、位置感知、行政数据和城市建模来及时解决当前政策问题的潜在价值和困难。我们利用波士顿市区所有私人乘用车的年度安全检查中数百万个里程表读数的独特数据集，来估计不同都市增长情景的车辆行驶里程（VMT）含义：一种是扩张型的“顺其自然”情景，另一种是智能增长型的“变化之风”情景。数据以MassGIS开发的250 × 250 m网格单元为地理参考。我们应用贪婪算法将交通分析区（TAZ）级别的家庭增长预测分配到网格单元，然后使用空间插值工具估计该区域的每辆车的行驶里程。如果新增长家庭的VMT行为与其邻居相似，那么与“变革之风”情景相比，“顺其自然”情景将使每户家庭多产生12-15%的VMT。然而，即使是“变革之风”的情景，也将导致新家庭的平均家庭VMT高于2005年波士顿地铁的平均水平。其含义是，城市增长管理可以显著减少温室气体，但其本身不足以实现国家为运输部门制定的温室气体减排目标。
This study demonstrates the potential value, and difficulties, in utilizing large‐scale, location aware, administrative data together with urban modeling to address current policy issues in a timely fashion. We take advantage of a unique dataset of millions of odometer readings from annual safety inspections of all private passenger vehicles in Metropolitan Boston to estimate the vehicle‐miles‐traveled (VMT) implication of alternative metropolitan growth scenarios: a sprawl‐type “let‐it‐be” scenario and a smart‐growth‐type “winds‐of‐change” scenario. The data are georeferenced to 250 × 250 m grid cells developed by MassGIS. We apply a greedy algorithm to assign Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level household growth projections to grid cells and then use spatial interpolation tools to estimate VMT‐per‐vehicle surfaces for the region. If new growth households have similar VMT behavior as their neighbors, then the let‐it‐be scenario will generate 12–15% more VMT per household compared to the winds‐of‐change scenario. However, even the “wind‐of‐change” scenario, will result in new households averaging higher VMT per household than the Metro Boston average observed in 2005. The implication is that urban growth management can significantly reduce GHG but, by itself, will not be sufficient to achieve the GHG emission reduction targets set by the State for the transportation sector.