TIGGE: Comparison of the Prediction of Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones by Different Ensemble Prediction Systems
TIGGE: Comparison of the Prediction of Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones by Different Ensemble Prediction Systems
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TIGGE：不同集合预报系统对南半球温带气旋的预报比较
DOI：
10.1175/2010waf2222457.1
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Froude L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Froude L
作为观测系统研究和可预报性试验（THORPEX）交互式全球大集合（TIGGE）的一部分，9个不同的集合预报系统（EPSs）对北方半球（NH）热带气旋的预报最近使用气旋跟踪方法进行了探索。本文提供了这项工作的延续，扩展到南半球（SH）的分析。虽然EPS在南半球的所有气旋性质中具有较大的误差，但不同EPS的相对性能在两个半球之间保持大致一致。还显示了一些有趣的差异。中国气象局（CMA）EPS在SH中的性能水平明显低于NH。以前的NH结果表明，克里思和气候研究中心（CPTEC）的EPS低估了气旋强度。当前研究的结果表明，SH中的偏倚显著更大。CPTEC EPS在两个半球的传播也很小。与NH的结果一样，气旋传播速度被SH中的所有EPS低估。为了进一步研究这一点，还计算了ECMWF高分辨率确定性预报的偏差。偏倚明显小于低分辨率ECMWF EPS。
The prediction of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical cyclones by nine different ensemble prediction systems (EPSs), archived as part of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), has recently been explored using a cyclone-tracking approach. This paper provides a continuation of this work, extending the analysis to the Southern Hemisphere (SH). While the EPSs have larger error in all cyclone properties in the SH, the relative performance of the different EPSs remains broadly consistent between the two hemispheres. Some interesting differences are also shown. The Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) EPS has a significantly lower level of performance in the SH compared to the NH. Previous NH results showed that the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) EPS underpredicts cyclone intensity. The results of this current study show that this bias is significantly larger in the SH. The CPTEC EPS also has very little spread in both hemispheres. As with the NH results, cyclone propagation speed is underpredicted by all the EPSs in the SH. To investigate this further, the bias was also computed for the ECMWF high-resolution deterministic forecast. The bias was significantly smaller than the lower-resolution ECMWF EPS.