Managing the Tide: How Do Emerging Markets Respond to Capital Flows?
Managing the Tide: How Do Emerging Markets Respond to Capital Flows?
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驾驭潮流：新兴市场如何应对资本流动？
DOI：
10.5089/9781475589207.001
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Qureshi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Ghosh;J. Ostry;M. Qureshi
本文探讨了新兴市场经济体 (EME) 是否以及如何应对资本流动以减轻其不良后果。基于2005年一季度至2013年四季度约50个新兴市场经济体的样本，我们发现，新兴市场经济体政策制定者通过多种政策工具积极应对资本流入：央行提高政策利率以应对经济过热问题；干预外汇市场以抵御货币升值压力；收紧宏观审慎措施以抑制信贷增长；以及在竞争和金融稳定问题下部署资本流入管制。就针对新兴市场经济体的传统政策建议而言，我们没有发现针对资本流入采取反周期财政政策的证据。总体而言，与正常时期相比，在资本流入激增期间，政策更有可能做出反应并结合使用。
This paper examines whether—and how—emerging market economies (EMEs) respond to capital flows to mitigate their untoward consequences. Based on a sample of about 50 EMEs over 2005Q1–2013Q4, we find that EME policy makers respond proactively to capital inflows by using a combination of policy tools: central banks raise the policy interest rate to address economic overheating concerns; intervene in the foreign exchange market to resist currency appreciation pressures; tighten macroprudential measures to dampen credit growth; and deploy capital inflow controls in the face of competitiveness and financial-stability concerns. Contrary to conventional policy advice to EMEs, we find no evidence of counter-cyclical fiscal policy in the face of capital inflows. Overall, policies are more likely to respond, and used in combination, during inflow surges than in more normal times.