Quantifying the effects of projected urban growth on connectivity among wetlands in the Great Plains (USA)
Quantifying the effects of projected urban growth on connectivity among wetlands in the Great Plains (USA)
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DOI：
10.1016/j.landurbplan.2019.02.007
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发表时间：
2019-06-01
影响因子：
9.1
通讯作者：
McIntyre, Nancy E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Heintzman, Lucas J.;McIntyre, Nancy E.
与非城市湿地相比，城市湿地的水文周期通常较长，因此它们可能对野生动物发挥巨大的积极作用。城市湿地的生态研究通常集中在大城市地区，但北美大平原城镇等非传统城市化地区预计将经历土地利用和气候变化，这将改变大陆规模迁徙野生动物走廊沿线淡水湿地之间的连通性。我们使用七个图论指标来量化这些湿地中 89,798 个湿地之间的连通性，这些湿地根据景观变化预测来自为三种气候变化和发展情景构建的两个模型，预计到 2050 年。我们比较了焦点变量（不透水地表或已开发土地利用）不同的模型的结果。总体而言，具有不渗透表面预测的模型导致湿地受到的影响最大，而具有发达土地利用预测的模型则导致影响最大的空间分布。模型和情景预测的湿地城市化数量和类型存在差异，导致湿地网络拓扑结构不同，各个湿地的连通作用也存在差异。因此，根据预计到 2050 年不渗透表面增加并存在于已开发土地利用范围内的湿地，建立了一个共识网络。这 126 个湿地可以优先用于城市生态研究或管理，因为无论模型或情景如何，它们都极有可能受到影响。最后，我们的研究强调了在规划非传统城市化地区的城市湿地管理时考虑一系列发展未来的效用。
Urban wetlands often have prolonged hydroperiods relative to non-urban ones, so they may play an outsized, positive role for wildlife. Ecological studies of urban wetlands have typically focused on large metropolitan areas, but non-traditional urbanizing areas such as the towns of the Great Plains of North America are projected to experience land-use and climate changes that will alter connectivity among the freshwater wetlands along a continental-scale migratory wildlife corridor. We used seven graph theory metrics to quantify connectivity among 89,798 of these wetlands under landscape-change forecasts from two models built for three climate change and development scenarios, projected to the year 2050. We compared outcomes from models that differed in focal variable (impervious surface or developed land use). Overall, models with impervious surface projections resulted in the most wetlands affected, whereas models featuring developed land use projections resulted in the largest spatial distribution of effect. There were differences in how many and which wetlands were forecast to become urbanized by model and scenario, resulting in different wetland network topologies and differences in the connectivity roles of individual wetlands. A consensus network was therefore developed based on the wetlands that were projected to increase in impervious surface and exist within developed land use by 2050. These 126 wetlands can be prioritized for urban ecological studies or management because they are highly likely to be affected regardless of model or scenario. Lastly, our study highlights the utility of considering a range of developmental futures when planning urban wetland management in non-traditional urbanizing areas.