18 Politically relevant solar geoengineering scenarios
18 Politically relevant solar geoengineering scenarios
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DOI：
10.18174/sesmo.18127
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发表时间：
2022-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Lockley;Yangyang Xu;S. Tilmes;M. Sugiyama;D. Rothman;Adrian Hindes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Lockley;Yangyang Xu;S. Tilmes;M. Sugiyama;D. Rothman;Adrian Hindes
太阳地球工程，也被称为太阳辐射修正(SRM)，已被提出改变地球的辐射平衡，以减少人为气候变化的影响。SRM已被确定为研究重点，因为它已被证明有效地降低了表面温度，而副作用和影响方面仍存在很大的不确定性。对可持续发展管理的全球建模研究往往依赖于理想化的情景来了解干预措施的物理过程及其广泛影响。这些极端或理想化的情景并不直接与政策相关，而且在物理上往往是不可信的(例如强制全球减少太阳活动，以应对二氧化碳瞬间翻两番的变暖)。政治上相关的和可能看似合理的可持续土地管理办法的气候和生态影响很少被模拟和评估。然而，评论人士和政策制定者经常错误地认为，理想化或极端的情景是针对气候变化提出的解决方案。这篇论文提出了18种情景，从政治和地球系统的角度来看，这些情景似乎大体上是合理的，并涵盖了既可能是警告，也可能是可取的未来。我们根据更广泛的战略背景将这些情景分为四组：(1)全球管理；(2)区域紧急情况；(3)协调的区域干预；以及(4)被动的全球干预。针对每一种情况，提出了相应的模型实验。其中一些可能是用现有的全球气候模型来执行的，而另一些则需要进一步的规范。开发和执行这些模型实验--并评估可能对社会和生态系统造成的影响--对于让公众辩论和政策制定者了解围绕可持续发展管理的现实问题至关重要。
Solar geoengineering, also known as Solar Radiation Modification (SRM), has been proposed to alter Earth’s radiative balance to reduce the effects of anthropogenic climate change. SRM has been identified as a research priority, as it has been shown to effectively reduce surface temperatures, while substantial uncertainties remain around side effects and impacts. Global modeling studies of SRM have often relied on idealized scenarios to understand the physical processes of interventions and their widespread impacts. These extreme or idealized scenarios are not directly policy-relevant and are often physically implausible (such as imposing global solar reduction to counter the warming of an instantaneous quadrupling of CO2). The climatic and ecological impacts of politically relevant and potentially plausible SRM approaches have rarely been modeled and assessed. Nevertheless, commentators and policymakers often falsely assume that idealized or extreme scenarios are proposed solutions to climate change. This paper proposes 18 scenarios that appear to be broadly plausible from political and Earth System perspectives and encompass futures that could be both warnings or perhaps desirable. We place these scenarios into four groups following broader strategic contexts: (1) Global Management; (2) Regional Emergencies; (3) Coordinated Regional Interventions; and (4) Reactive Global Interventions. For each scenario, relevant model experiments are proposed. Some may be performed with existing setups of global climate models, while others require further specification. Developing and performing these model experiments – and assessing likely resulting impacts on society and ecosystems – would be essential to inform public debate and policymakers on the real-world issues surrounding SRM.