Reconstructing 800 years of summer temperatures in Scotland from tree rings
Reconstructing 800 years of summer temperatures in Scotland from tree rings
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-016-3478-8
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发表时间：
2017-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
M. Rydval;N. Loader;B. Gunnarson;D. Druckenbrod;H. Linderholm;S. Moreton;C. Wood;R. Wilson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Rydval;N. Loader;B. Gunnarson;D. Druckenbrod;H. Linderholm;S. Moreton;C. Wood;R. Wilson
本研究提出了一个夏季温度重建苏格兰松树年轮年表苏格兰允许放置在一个长期的背景下，目前的区域温度变化。利用从近岸湖泊沉积物中提取的“亚化石”样品延长了“活树”年表，得到了长度>800年的复合年表。北凯恩戈姆斯（NCAIRN）重建是从一组复合蓝色强度高通和环宽低通滤波年表与一系列的去趋势和干扰校正程序。对7 - 8月平均温度的校准解释了1866-2009年仪器数据方差的56.4%，并得到了很好的验证。空间相关性揭示了与不列颠群岛、西欧部分地区、斯堪的纳维亚半岛南部和伊比利亚半岛北方部分地区气温的强一致性。NCAIRN认为，与14世纪、16世纪和18世纪30年代观察到的数十年温暖期相比，苏格兰最近的夏季变暖可能并不独特，尽管由于更大的不确定性，在解释16世纪中叶之前的趋势时应该谨慎。从16世纪到19世纪初，人们发现了显著的寒冷时期，这与欧洲其他树木年轮重建中观察到的所谓小冰期相一致，17世纪90年代被认为是有记录以来最冷的十年。重建显示了显着的冷却响应1年后火山爆发，虽然这一结果是敏感的数据集用于识别此类事件。事实上，NCAIRN观测到的极端寒冷（和温暖）年似乎与夏季北大西洋涛动的内部强迫关系更大。
This study presents a summer temperature reconstruction using Scots pine tree-ring chronologies for Scotland allowing the placement of current regional temperature changes in a longer-term context. ‘Living-tree’ chronologies were extended using ‘subfossil’ samples extracted from nearshore lake sediments resulting in a composite chronology >800 years in length. The North Cairngorms (NCAIRN) reconstruction was developed from a set of composite blue intensity high-pass and ring-width low-pass filtered chronologies with a range of detrending and disturbance correction procedures. Calibration against July–August mean temperature explains 56.4% of the instrumental data variance over 1866–2009 and is well verified. Spatial correlations reveal strong coherence with temperatures over the British Isles, parts of western Europe, southern Scandinavia and northern parts of the Iberian Peninsula. NCAIRN suggests that the recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s, although trends before the mid-sixteenth century should be interpreted with some caution due to greater uncertainty. Prominent cold periods were identified from the sixteenth century until the early 1800s—agreeing with the so-called Little Ice Age observed in other tree-ring reconstructions from Europe—with the 1690s identified as the coldest decade in the record. The reconstruction shows a significant cooling response 1 year following volcanic eruptions although this result is sensitive to the datasets used to identify such events. In fact, the extreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.