Feeding nine billion people sustainably: conserving land and water through shifting diets and changes in technologies.
Feeding nine billion people sustainably: conserving land and water through shifting diets and changes in technologies.
复制标题
可持续地养活 90 亿人：通过改变饮食和技术变革来保护土地和水。
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
F. Duchin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nathaniel P. Springer;F. Duchin
世纪初，森林的大面积砍伐、淡水资源的短缺、食品价格的急剧上涨，成为人们关注的焦点。由于需要为不断增长的全球人口提供更好的饮食，这些问题在未来几十年可能会大大加剧。本研究采用世界经济的区域间投入产出模型-世界贸易模型，分析到本世纪中叶满足未来粮食需求的替代方案。情景分析表明，如果仅仅依靠更广泛地使用可耕地和淡水，就需要砍伐森林，加剧区域水资源短缺。然而，减少资源密集型饮食和提高农业生产力（特别是在非洲）相结合，可以可持续地利用这些资源，同时也限制粮食价格的上涨。与其他类型的经济模型的情景结果不同，我们的框架揭示了农产品生产和出口从发达国家向非洲和拉丁美洲的决定性转移的潜力。虽然假设的饮食和技术的变化可能无法实现没有激励措施，我们的研究结果表明，这些地区表现出农业生产的比较优势，由于其剩余的大量资源禀赋和提高产量的潜力。
In the early 21st century the extensive clearing of forestland, fresh water scarcity, and sharp rises in the price of food have become causes for concern. These concerns may be substantially exacerbated over the next few decades by the need to provide improved diets for a growing global population. This study applies an inter-regional input-output model of the world economy, the World Trade Model, for analysis of alternative scenarios about satisfying future food requirements by midcentury. The scenario analysis indicates that relying only on more extensive use of arable land and fresh water would require clearing forests and exacerbating regional water scarcities. However, a combination of less resource-intensive diets and improved agricultural productivity, the latter especially in Africa, could make it possible to use these resources sustainably while also constraining increases in food prices. Unlike the scenario outcomes from other kinds of economic models, our framework reveals the potential for a decisive shift of production and export of agricultural products away from developed countries toward Africa and Latin America. Although the assumed changes in diets and technologies may not be realizable without incentives, our results suggest that these regions exhibit comparative advantages in agricultural production due to their large remaining resource endowments and their potential for higher yields.