A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period
A COVID-19 epidemic model with latency period
复制标题
具有潜伏期的 COVID-19 流行病模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.003
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Webb, G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Liu, Z.;Magal, P.;Webb, G.
在COVID-19感染开始时，在感染者能够将感染传播给另一个人之前，有一段时间被称为暴露期或潜伏期。我们开发了两个微分方程模型来解释这一时期。第一种是在可能传播之前将感染者纳入暴露人群的模型。第二种是一种模型，其中包括感染者在可能传播之前的时间延迟。我们将这两种模型应用于中国的COVID-19疫情。我们使用报告病例的数据估计模型中的流行病学参数，如传播率和基本繁殖数。因此，我们评估了暴露期或潜伏期在COVID-19流行动态中的作用。(c) 2020作者。由Elsevier B.V.代表KeAi Communications Co. Ltd制作和主持。这是一篇基于CC BY-NC-ND许可（http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/）的开放获取文章。
At the beginning of a COVID-19 infection, there is a period of time known as the exposed or latency period, before an infected person is capable of transmitting the infection to another person. We develop two differential equations models to account for this period. The first is a model that incorporates infected persons in the exposed class, before transmission is possible. The second is a model that incorporates a time delay in infected persons, before transmission is possible. We apply both models to the COVID-19 epidemic in China. We estimate the epidemiological parameters in the models, such as the transmission rate and the basic reproductive number, using data of reported cases. We thus evaluate the role of the exposed or latency period in the dynamics of a COVID-19 epidemic. (c) 2020 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).