Public health impact of changes in smoking behavior: results from the Tobacco Policy Model.
Public health impact of changes in smoking behavior: results from the Tobacco Policy Model.
复制标题
吸烟行为变化对公共卫生的影响：烟草政策模型的结果。
DOI：
10.1097/00005650-200110000-00010
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Lin,TH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tengs,TO;Osgood,ND;Lin,TH
Objective.The相对大小的公共卫生收益，从防止吸烟开始与鼓励戒烟或避免复发，在不同的年龄和genders.Methods估计和compared.Health收益被定义为预测增加质量调整生命年（QEARS），以美国人口在世纪。为了估计QESTs，我们开发了烟草政策模型。该模型模拟了6个年龄组中男性和女性的年启动概率降低10%，停止概率增加10%，复发概率降低10%：10至19岁，20至29岁，30至39岁，40至49岁，50至59岁和60至69岁。减少开始的次数比鼓励停止或避免复发产生的QALs要多得多。在中年人中，停止产生最多的QURs，其次是避免复发和减少启动。在年龄最大的年龄组中，避免复发产生最多的QADs，其次是停止和减少开始。在一般情况下，增加停止和减少复发是更有益的男性比女性，而减少启动是更有益的females.Conclusions.The相对价值的预防启动，鼓励停止，避免复发不同的年龄和性别。在下一个世纪，减少青年的启蒙可能会对公共卫生产生最大的影响。
Objectives.The relative magnitude of the public health gains from preventing smoking initiation versus encouraging cessation or avoiding relapse in different ages and genders is estimated and compared.Methods.Health gains are defined as the predicted increase in Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs) to the US population during a century. To estimate QALYs, we developed the Tobacco Policy Model. The model simulates a 10% reduction in the annual probability of initiation versus a 10% increase in cessation versus a 10% reduction in relapse in males and females in six age groups: 10 to 19, 20 to 29, 30 to 39, 40 to 49, 50 to 59 and 60 to 69.Results.Among youth and young adults, reducing initiation yields far more QALYs than encouraging cessation or averting relapse. In middle-aged adults, cessation yields the most QALYs, followed by averting relapse and reducing initiation. In the oldest age group, averting relapse yields the most QALYs followed by cessation and reducing initiation. In general, increasing cessation and reducing relapse is more beneficial in males than in females whereas reducing initiation is more beneficial in females.Conclusions.The relative value of preventing initiation, encouraging cessation, and averting relapse differs by age and gender. Reducing initiation in youth is likely to offer the largest public health impact during the next century.