Analysis of the vectorial capacity of vector-borne diseases using moment-generating functions
Analysis of the vectorial capacity of vector-borne diseases using moment-generating functions
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DOI：
10.1016/j.amc.2016.05.026
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发表时间：
2016-11
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Villela
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Villela
作为疾病媒介的蚊子物种的媒介能力表明，假设人类和媒介之间完全传播，所有被感染的蚊子通过叮咬单个被感染的人类个体而产生的预期感染性叮咬次数。评估同一疾病的不同传播物种（如登革热或疟疾）的这一数字，可以表达这些物种传播疾病的能力。我们描述的向量容量作为一个随机过程，并提出了一个模型来分析其概率分布。我们的随机模型使我们能够获得矢量容量分布的矩生成函数，并在合理的假设下，概率分布本身。随机建模框架有助于分析疾病传播的动态，例如在执行敏感性分析时。
The vectorial capacity of a mosquito species that is a disease-vector indicates the expected number of infectious bites given by all mosquitoes infected from biting a single infected human individual, assuming perfect transmissions between humans and vectors. Assessing this number for different transmitting species of the same disease, such as dengue or malaria, expresses how capable these species are of spreading the disease. We describe the vectorial capacity as a random process and present a model for analyzing its probability distribution. Our stochastic model permits us to obtain the moment-generating function for the distribution of the vectorial capacity and, under reasonable assumptions, the probability distribution itself. A stochastic modeling framework is helpful for analyzing the dynamics of disease spreading, such as when performing sensitivity analysis.