Measuring progress from nationally determined contributions to mid-century strategies
Measuring progress from nationally determined contributions to mid-century strategies
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-017-0005-9
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发表时间：
2017-12-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Williams, James H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Iyer, Gokul;Ledna, Catherine;Williams, James H.
《巴黎协定》要求各国通过通报国家自主贡献（NDCs），明确到2025年或2030年的近期减排战略，并鼓励制定长期低排放发展战略（第4.19条）(1)。对此，许多国家已经提出或正在拟订本世纪中叶战略(2)。大多数国家自主贡献都设定了高水平的近期目标——比如限制排放或排放强度(3)——但没有提供信息，说明它们在多大程度上为未来进一步减排奠定了技术、基础设施和制度基础，而这是决策者面临的一个关键问题。本文利用嵌入全球综合评估模型中的美国州级模型（4,5），证明了尽管美国的国家自主贡献是沿着一条直线排放路径走向其本世纪中叶战略，但由此产生的能源系统转型涉及非线性转型。2025年以后，发电能力的增加和资本投资的速度是下一个十年的三倍多。我们的研究结果表明，需要进行全球盘点，使用比排放更广泛的指标来评估国家自主贡献，以更好地阐明其在实现《巴黎协定》长期目标方面的有效性（6,7）。
The Paris Agreement requires countries to articulate nearterm emissions reduction strategies through to 2025 or 2030 by communicating nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as well as encouraging the formulation of long-term low-emission development strategies (Article 4.19)(1). In response, many countries have either submitted or are preparing mid-century strategies(2). Most NDCs set high-level near-term goals-such as limits on emissions or emissions intensity(3)-which do not provide information about the extent to which they lay the foundations of technology, infrastructure and institutions for deeper reductions in the future, which is a key question for decision makers. Here, using a state-level model of the US embedded within a global integrated assessment model(4,5), we demonstrate that although the US NDC lieson a straight-line emissions pathway towards its mid-century strategy, the resulting energy system transitions involve non-linear transformations. The rates of capacity additions and capital investments in electricity generation beyond 2025 are more than three times the rates during the next decade. Our results demonstrate the need for global stocktaking exercises to evaluate the NDCs using metrics broader than emissions to better illuminate their effectiveness in addressing the Paris Agreement's long-term goals(6,7).