Summer Precipitation Change for Recent 40 Years in the Tianshan Mountains and Compared with Southern and Northern Xinjiang Regions
Summer Precipitation Change for Recent 40 Years in the Tianshan Mountains and Compared with Southern and Northern Xinjiang Regions
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发表时间：
2003
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通讯作者：
Y. Yuan
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作者：
Y. Yuan
干旱区山区降水是新疆地区维持和发展环境和社会经济的根本径流来源和生命线，因此研究山区降水变化具有十分重要的意义。但是，以往对山区降水变化的研究较少，对山区与平原地区降水变化特征的比较也较少。研究主要集中在南疆或北方地区。本文利用天山、南疆、北疆地区各8个气象站1959 - 1998年夏季降水资料，分别建立了天山、南疆、北疆地区夏季降水的平均序列。以1961 - 1990年夏季降水30年平均值为距平比较标准，分析了天山山区近40年夏季降水变化的基本特征，并与南疆、北方地区进行了比较。主要结果如下：1）天山山区、南疆和北方地区夏季降水的干湿阶段、最干年和最湿年、变化周期存在差异。天山地区干湿变化为湿-干-湿型，南疆地区为三干-湿型，北方新疆地区为湿-干-湿-干-湿型。天山山区夏季降水最大值出现在1998年，最小值出现在1977年;南疆地区夏季降水最大值出现在1981年，最小值出现在1985年;北方地区夏季降水最大值出现在1993年，最小值出现在1974年。天山山区夏季降水变化有31 a、57 a、22 a和大于40 a的显著周期，南疆地区有8，5，31 a的显著周期，北方地区有31 a和大于40 a的显著周期。因此，三个地区的共同周期为31年。2)天山山区夏季降水的空间同步性变化弱于南疆和北方地区。3)天山夏季降水的年代际变化与北方新疆地区相似。4)近40年来夏季降水最多的10年出现在20世纪90年代，天山山区夏季降水偏多12%，南疆地区偏多25%，北方新疆地区偏多21%。
Precipitation in mountainous of arid Xinjiang Region is ultimate source of runoff and lifeline for maintaining and developing environment and society economy in Xinjiang Region; therefore, researching precipitation changing in mountains has very important significance. But, there is less research on precipitation change before in mountains and less comparison of precipitation changing features between mountains and plain areas. The researches were mainly done in the southern or northern Xinjiang regions. In the paper, using the summer precipitation data for each 8 meteorological stations in the Tianshan Mountains, the southern and northern Xinjiang regions during 1959\_1998, the mean series of summer precipitation for the three regions are built separately. Using the 30-year mean of summer precipitation during 1961\_1990 as standard of anomaly comparison, the basic features of summer precipitation change in the recent 40 years are analyzed in the Tianshan Mountains, and then the features are compared with those in the southern and northern Xinjiang regions. The main results obtained are as follows: 1) There are different in wet-dry stage, driest year and wettest year, changing period of summer precipitation among the Tianshan Mountains, the southern and northern Xinjiang regions. The dry-wet variation is wet-dry-wet pattern in the Tianshan Mountains, three-dry-wet pattern in the southern Xinjiang region and wet-dry-wet-dry-wet pattern in the northern Xinjiang region. The maximum summer precipitation occurred in 1998 and the minimum in 1977 for the Tianshan Mountains, the maximum summer precipitation occurred in 1981 and the minimum in 1985 for the southern Xinjiang region and the maximum summer precipitation occurred in 1993 and the minimum in 1974 for the northern Xinjiang region. The summer precipitation change has significant periods of 3\^1 years, 5\^7, 2\^2 years and greater than 40 years in the Tianshan Mountains, significant periods of 8,5,3\^1 years in the southern Xinjiang region and significant periods of 3\^1 and greater than 40 years in the northern Xinjiang region. Thus the common period is 3\^1 years for the three regions. 2) The spatial synchronization change of summer precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains is weaker than those in the southern and northern Xinjiang regions. 3) The decadal change of summer precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains is similar to that in the northern Xinjiang region. 4) The maximum decade of summer precipitation in the recent 40 years occurred in the 1990s, summer precipitation is 12% more in the Tianshan Mountains, 25% in the southern Xinjiang region and 21% in the northern Xinjiang region.