An indicator of technical emergence
An indicator of technical emergence
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DOI：
10.1007/s11192-018-2654-5
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发表时间：
2018-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Garner, Jon G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carley, Stephen F.;Newman, Nils C.;Garner, Jon G.
开发关于科学和技术涌现的有用情报对那些管理研发组合、评估研究计划或管理创新的人提出了挑战。最近，美国情报高级研究项目活动预见和科学博览会项目探索了通过文本分析检测突发事件的方法。我们参与了为出现提出概念基础、制定候选指标和设计实施方案的工作。我们现在提供一个软件脚本，为感兴趣的主题生成一系列涌现指标。本文提供了一些背景知识，然后通过反复几轮测试讨论了该脚本的开发，并提供了示例结果。研究结果为研发决策者提供了有希望的、可操作的情报。
Developing useful intelligence on scientific and technological emergence challenges those who would manage R&D portfolios, assess research programs, or manage innovation. Recently, the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity Foresight and Understanding from Scientific Exposition Program has explored means to detect emergence via text analyses. We have been involved in positing conceptual bases for emergence, framing candidate indicators, and devising implementations. We now present a software script to generate a family of Emergence Indicators for a topic of interest. This paper offers some background, then discusses the development of this script through iterative rounds of testing, and then offers example findings. Results point to promising and actionable intelligence for R&D decision-makers.