Quantifying and Comparing Effects of Climate Engineering Methods on the Earth System
Quantifying and Comparing Effects of Climate Engineering Methods on the Earth System
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DOI：
10.1002/2017ef000620
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发表时间：
2018-02
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Sonntag;Miriam Ferrer González;T. Ilyina;D. Kracher;J. Nabel;U. Niemeier;J. Pongratz;C. Reick;H. Schmidt
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文献类型：
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作者：
S. Sonntag;Miriam Ferrer González;T. Ilyina;D. Kracher;J. Nabel;U. Niemeier;J. Pongratz;C. Reick;H. Schmidt
为了有助于定量比较气候工程(CE)方法，我们在一个综合模型中一致地评估基于大气、海洋和陆地的气候工程措施对地球系统的影响。我们使用预测碳循环的马克斯·普朗克研究所地球系统模型(MPI-ESM)比较了平流层硫注入和两种二氧化碳去除方法：植树造林和海洋碱化的太阳辐射管理(SRM)。CE模式实验旨在抵消RCP8.5情景下化石燃料燃烧对全球平均地表气温的影响，以遵循或更接近RCP4.5情景。我们的结果表明了反馈在CE效应中的重要性。例如，作为对SRM的回应，到2100年，与参考的RCP8.5情景相比，土地碳吸收增加了92GT，这是因为土壤呼吸减少，从而减少了大气二氧化碳。此外，我们还表明，归一化允许不同的CE方法具有更好的可比性。例如，我们发现，由于植树造林的生物地球物理效应等补偿过程，需要通过植树造林比通过碱化从大气中消除更多的碳，才能达到相同的全球变暖减排效果。总体而言，我们说明了不同的CE方法如何影响地球系统的组成部分；我们确定了CE比较中出现的挑战，从而有助于制定CE比较评估的框架。
To contribute to a quantitative comparison of climate engineering (CE) methods, we assess atmosphere‐, ocean‐, and land‐based CE measures with respect to Earth system effects consistently within one comprehensive model. We use the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI‐ESM) with prognostic carbon cycle to compare solar radiation management (SRM) by stratospheric sulfur injection and two carbon dioxide removal methods: afforestation and ocean alkalinization. The CE model experiments are designed to offset the effect of fossil‐fuel burning on global mean surface air temperature under the RCP8.5 scenario to follow or get closer to the RCP4.5 scenario. Our results show the importance of feedbacks in the CE effects. For example, as a response to SRM the land carbon uptake is enhanced by 92 Gt by the year 2100 compared to the reference RCP8.5 scenario due to reduced soil respiration thus reducing atmospheric CO2. Furthermore, we show that normalizations allow for a better comparability of different CE methods. For example, we find that due to compensating processes such as biogeophysical effects of afforestation more carbon needs to be removed from the atmosphere by afforestation than by alkalinization to reach the same global warming reduction. Overall, we illustrate how different CE methods affect the components of the Earth system; we identify challenges arising in a CE comparison, and thereby contribute to developing a framework for a comparative assessment of CE.