An agent-based approach for modeling dynamics of contagious disease spread
An agent-based approach for modeling dynamics of contagious disease spread
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DOI：
10.1186/1476-072x-8-50
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发表时间：
2009-08-05
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Dragicevic, Suzana
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Perez, Liliana;Dragicevic, Suzana
背景资料：传染病在人群中的传播是一个对现代社会极为重要的内在时空过程。基于此，本文提出了一个空间显式的传染病流行病学模型，以更好地理解疾病通过人类接触网络的空间扩散。目的：本研究的目的是开发一种基于代理的建模方法，该方法集成了地理信息系统（GIS）来模拟城市环境中传染病的传播，方法：提出了传染病传播的时空动态模拟方法，并以城市环境中的麻疹疫情为例，实现了传染病传播的时空动态模拟。封闭群体中的个体由与他们与其他代理交互的地方相关联的代理明确表示。它们被赋予了流动性，通过交通网络使它们能够在城市环境中的各个地方之间移动，以代表传染病传播所涉及的空间异质性和复杂性。该模型是实现地理参考的土地利用数据集从大温哥华，并利用加拿大统计局的人口普查数据集为市的本拿比，不列颠哥伦比亚省，加拿大studysite.Results：结果提供了深入的了解模型的应用，以计算在特定的时间框架和城市环境中的易感/感染的比率，由于其能够描绘疾病的进展基于个人的相互作用。它表明，人口内的动态空间相互作用导致大量的暴露的个人谁完成通勤后，在地区进行固定的活动。其结果是，患病的个人集中在地理位置，如学校和university.Conclusion：GIS-代理为基础的模型设计的这项研究可以很容易地定制研究的疾病传播动力学的任何其他传染病，通过简单地调整建模的疾病时间轴和/或感染模型和修改的传输过程。这类模拟有助于提高对疾病传播动态的理解，并采取更好的措施预防和控制流行病爆发。
Background: The propagation of communicable diseases through a population is an inherent spatial and temporal process of great importance for modern society. For this reason a spatially explicit epidemiologic model of infectious disease is proposed for a greater understanding of the disease's spatial diffusion through a network of human contacts.Objective: The objective of this study is to develop an agent-based modelling approach the integrates geographic information systems (GIS) to simulate the spread of a communicable disease in an urban environment, as a result of individuals' interactions in a geospatial context.Methods: The methodology for simulating spatiotemporal dynamics of communicable disease propagation is presented and the model is implemented using measles outbreak in an urban environment as a case study. Individuals in a closed population are explicitly represented by agents associated to places where they interact with other agents. They are endowed with mobility, through a transportation network allowing them to move between places within the urban environment, in order to represent the spatial heterogeneity and the complexity involved in infectious diseases diffusion. The model is implemented on georeferenced land use dataset from Metro Vancouver and makes use of census data sets from Statistics Canada for the municipality of Burnaby, BC, Canada study site.Results: The results provide insights into the application of the model to calculate ratios of susceptible/infected in specific time frames and urban environments, due to its ability to depict the disease progression based on individuals' interactions. It is demonstrated that the dynamic spatial interactions within the population lead to high numbers of exposed individuals who perform stationary activities in areas after they have finished commuting. As a result, the sick individuals are concentrated in geographical locations like schools and universities.Conclusion: The GIS-agent based model designed for this study can be easily customized to study the disease spread dynamics of any other communicable disease by simply adjusting the modeled disease timeline and/or the infection model and modifying the transmission process. This type of simulations can help to improve comprehension of disease spread dynamics and to take better steps towards the prevention and control of an epidemic outbreak.