Impact of hot temperature on death in London: a time series approach
Impact of hot temperature on death in London: a time series approach
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DOI：
10.1136/jech.56.5.367
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发表时间：
2002-05-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Haines, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hajat, S;Kovats, RS;Haines, A
研究目的：本研究调查了伦敦的热与死亡率之间的关系，以确定死亡率增加的温度阈值，并量化极端温度对死亡率的影响。设计：获得了21年期间的全因死亡率和温度的每日数据，并通过图形和非参数时间序列分析方法研究了它们之间的关系。设置：大伦敦。参与者：1976年1月至1996年12月期间大伦敦地区每日死亡人数统计。主要结果：死亡率-温度关系图表明，与热有关的死亡人数从19 ℃左右开始上升。平均温度高于第97百分位数21.5摄氏度（不包括1976年15天热浪期的天数），平均温度每升高1摄氏度，死亡人数就会增加3.34%（95%CI 2.47%至4.23%）。结果发现，1976年的热浪导致了特别多的死亡人数相比，其他热periods.Conclusions：这些结果表明，热相关的死亡在伦敦可能开始在相对较低的温度。在任何一年的早期发生的炎热天气可能比后来发生的天气有更大的影响;对不同热浪时期的分析表明，持续时间长和温度最高的事件对死亡率的影响最大。
Study objective: This study investigated the relation between heat and mortality in London to determine the temperature threshold at which death rates increase and to quantify the effect of extreme temperatures on mortality.Design: Daily data on all cause mortality and temperature were obtained for a 21 year period and the relation between them investigated both graphically and by using non-parametric time series methods of analysis.Setting: Greater London.Participants: Daily mortality counts in Greater London between January 1976 and December 1996.Main results: A plot of the basic mortality-temperature relation suggested that a rise in heat related deaths began at about 19degreesC. Average temperatures above the 97th centile value of 21.5degreesC (excluding those days from a 15 day "heatwave" period in 1976) resulted in an increase in deaths of 3.34% (95% CI 2.47% to 4.23%) for every one degree increase in average temperature above this value. It was found that the 1976 heatwave resulted in a particularly large number of deaths in comparison with other hot periods.Conclusions: These results suggest that heat related deaths in London may begin at relatively low temperatures. Hot days occurring in the early part of any year may have a larger effect than those occurring later on; and analysis of separate heatwave periods suggest that episodes of long duration and of highest temperature have the largest mortality effect.