Projected Changes in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global-Warming Scenarios
Projected Changes in the Asian-Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global-Warming Scenarios
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DOI：
10.1002/2017ef000734
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发表时间：
2018-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Hannah, Shaun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chevuturi, Amulya;Klingaman, Nicholas P.;Hannah, Shaun
根据《巴黎协定》，必须确定全球变暖每增加半度的区域影响，以便为气候适应和减缓战略提供信息。我们利用来自半度额外升温、预测和预估影响（HAPPI）项目的五个模型，研究了相对于今天（2006-2015年），全球变暖高于工业化前条件1.5℃和2.0℃对亚洲-澳大利亚季风区（AAMR）的影响。在2.0℃和1.5℃情景下，对平均气候和极端事件的预估变化存在相当大的模式间变率。预估的AAMR平均地表温度和极端地表温度将增加，东亚、澳大利亚和印度北部的日极端温度将更频繁地持续升高0.5℃，这些都有可能发生。平均和极端季风降水在AAMR上放大，除了澳大利亚在1.5摄氏度时，那里的变化迹象不确定。如果气温再升高0.5摄氏度，东亚和印度部分地区持续的每日极端降水事件可能会变得更加频繁。降水变化预估的置信度比地表温度变化预估的置信度低。这些结果突出了将全球平均温度变化限制在比工业化前高1.5摄氏度的好处，因为每增加0.5摄氏度，上述影响的严重性就会增加。
In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5 degrees C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5 degrees C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5 degrees C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5 degrees C warming.