Risk Analysis for Distribution Systems in the Northeast U.S. Under Wind Storms
Risk Analysis for Distribution Systems in the Northeast U.S. Under Wind Storms
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DOI：
10.1109/pesgm.2014.6939519
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发表时间：
2014-07
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Gengfeng Li;Peng Zhang;P. Luh;Wenyuan Li;Z. Bie;Camilo Serna;Zhibing Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gengfeng Li;Peng Zhang;P. Luh;Wenyuan Li;Z. Bie;Camilo Serna;Zhibing Zhao
随着美国东北部植被密集地区极端天气事件的增多，评估风灾对配电系统的影响对于公用事业部门的防灾和快速反应变得越来越重要。本文通过对美国国家海洋和大气管理局大西洋盆地飓风数据库(HURDAT)中记录的160年风暴事件的挖掘，建立了该地区的概率风暴模型。此外，根据NOAA标准和IEEE标准，将风暴分为六类，以便于评估不同危害水平下的配电系统响应。利用序贯蒙特卡罗方法和时间风暴抽样策略对所有类别的风暴影响进行了准确的评估。对选定的典型配电系统的广泛研究表明，我们的模型和方法有效地揭示了研究区域内风暴的危险影响，从而为建立更好的系统加固方案提供了有用的见解。
With the growing trend of extreme weather events in the Northeast U.S., a region of dense vegetation, evaluating hazard effects of wind storms on power distribution systems becomes increasingly important for disaster preparedness and fast responses in utilities. In this paper, probabilistic wind storm models for the study region have been built by mining 160-year storm events recorded in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantic basin hurricane database (HURDAT). Further, wind storms are classified into six categories according to NOAA criteria and IEEE standard to facilitate the evaluation of distribution system responses under different levels of hazards. The impacts of wind storms in all categories are accurately evaluated through a Sequential Monte Carlo method enhanced by a temporal wind storm sampling strategy. Extensive studies for the selected typical distribution system indicate that our models and methods effectively reveal the hazardous effects of wind storms in the study region, leading to useful insights towards building better system hardening schemes.