Practical Monte Carlo Simulation Method Highlighting on Tail Probability with Application to Biomechanics Analysis of Pressure Ulcer
Practical Monte Carlo Simulation Method Highlighting on Tail Probability with Application to Biomechanics Analysis of Pressure Ulcer
复制标题
强调尾部概率的实用蒙特卡罗模拟方法在压疮生物力学分析中的应用
DOI：
10.11421/jsces.2014.20140001
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Naoki Takano and Tomohisa Nagasao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Samuel Susanto Slamet;Kyohei Hatano;Naoki Takano and Tomohisa Nagasao
蒙特卡罗方法是一种著名的计算不确定度的方法，但它的缺点是计算成本高，因为它通常需要10,000个采样点。本文提出了一种实用的抽样算法--逐级有限抽样(SLS)，在蒙特卡罗模拟中既能得到准确的期望值，又能得到非常准确的尾概率值。该方法随后被应用于与压疮风险预测有关的生物力学问题。众所周知，导致压疮致命阶段的最初损伤发生在深部肌肉，但其位置尚不清楚。通过将人体臀部骨骼-肌肉界面的假设损伤建模为缺口，并通过判断损伤是否传播，获得了护理过程中导致高界面剪切应变的尾部概率中肌肉和脂肪的材料属性集。
The Monte Carlo method is a well-known method for calculating uncertainty, but it has the disadvantage of high computational cost because it usually requires 10,000 sampling points. In this paper, a practical sampling algorithm named Stepwise Limited Sampling (SLS) is proposed to obtain both accurate expected values and very accurate tail probability values in the Monte Carlo simulation. This method was then applied to a biomechanics problem concerning the risk prediction of pressure ulcers. It is known that the initial damage that leads to a fatal stage of pressure ulcer occurs in deep muscle, but its location has not been clarified. By modeling assumed damage at the bone-muscle interface in the human buttock as a cutout, and by judging whether the damage propagates or not, sets of material properties of muscle and fat in the tail probability that result in high interface shear strain were obtained as a function of body positioning during nursing.