Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic
Weekly COVID-19 testing with household quarantine and contact tracing is feasible and would probably end the epidemic
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.200915
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发表时间：
2020-06-24
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Turnbull, Clare
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Peto, Julian;Carpenter, James;Turnbull, Clare
通过每周的SARS-COV-2 RNA测试以及家庭隔离和系统的接触跟踪，COVID-19可能会结束，并且可能很快恢复正常的寿命，也许很快就可以恢复。然后，可以通过接触跟踪来包含孤立的爆发，并在必要时通过临时重新引入人口测试或锁定来补充。领先的公共卫生专家建议应该在一个示范项目中尝试这一点，在该项目中，中型城市每周进行测试并完全提升锁定。这些想法没有由预测指导英国政策的群体考虑，因此我们检查了此类研究的统计案例。定期测试与严格的家庭隔离区（未在其模型中进行分析）的结合具有显着的力量，可以减少其他家庭成员向社区传播，并提供较早的诊断并促进快速接触跟踪。
The COVID-19 epidemic can probably be ended and normal life restored, perhaps quite quickly, by weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA testing together with household quarantine and systematic contact tracing. Isolated outbreaks could then be contained by contact tracing, supplemented if necessary by temporary local reintroduction of population testing or lockdown. Leading public health experts have recommended that this should be tried in a demonstration project in which a medium-sized city introduces weekly testing and lifts lockdown completely. The idea was not considered by the groups whose predictions have guided UK policy, so we have examined the statistical case for such a study. The combination of regular testing with strict household quarantine, which was not analysed in their models, has remarkable power to reduce transmission to the community from other household members as well as providing earlier diagnosis and facilitating rapid contact tracing.