The use of face masks during vaccine roll-out in New YorkCity and impact on epidemic control.
The use of face masks during vaccine roll-out in New YorkCity and impact on epidemic control.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.08.102
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发表时间：
2021-10-08
期刊：
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Chanmugam A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Raina MacIntyre C;Costantino V;Chanmugam A
在 2020 年第一波疫情期间，纽约强制要求佩戴口罩，并于 2021 年启动了第一批疫苗计划。我们的目的是研究随着纽约市逐步推出疫苗，口罩和其他 NPI 的使用对流行轨迹的影响。纽约市 (NYC) 开发了 SARS-CoV-2 传播的 SEIR 数学模型，该模型解决了封锁、检测和追踪的流动性下降的问题。测试了各种口罩的使用和功效，以及五个月内疫苗接种量逐渐增加的情况。该模型是使用纽约市3月1日至6月29日的通知数据进行校准的。口罩和其他NPI会对疫情产生直接影响，而疫苗接种则具有延迟影响，尤其是在长期实施的情况下。先发制人、及早强制佩戴口罩比延迟使用口罩更有效，但即使是延迟佩戴口罩，也能将病例和死亡人数减少 20% 以上。从疫情爆发之初起，至少有 50% 的人佩戴口罩，疫情曲线受到抑制，但当口罩佩戴率降至 30% 或更少时，疫情曲线就会激增。随着疫苗在五个月内缓慢推出，使用率达到 20-70%，仍然需要 NPI 的使用，并对流行病控制产生更大的影响。当在出现 COVID-19 局部传播的城市中疫苗推出缓慢或部分推出时，将需要口罩和其他 NPI 来减轻传播，直到疫苗覆盖率较高且完整。由于两剂免疫存在时间滞后，仅靠疫苗无法快速控制流行病。即使在高覆盖率之后，对 NPI 的持续需求仍是未知的，并且将取决于疫苗功效的长期持续时间、加强剂的使用以及优化的剂量安排和关注的变体。
Face masks were mandated in New York during the first wave in 2020, and in 2021 the first vaccine programs have commenced. We aimed to examine the impact of face mask and other NPIs use with a gradual roll out of vaccines in NYC on the epidemic trajectory. A SEIR mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission was developed for New York City (NYC), which accounted for decreased mobility for lockdown, testing and tracing. Varied mask’s usage and efficacy were tested, along with a gradual increase in vaccine uptake over five months. The model has been calibrated using notification data in NYC from March first to June 29. Masks and other NPIs result in immediate impact on the epidemic, while vaccination has a delayed impact, especially when implemented over a long period of time. A pre-emptive, early mandate for masks is more effective than late mask use, but even late mask mandates will reduce cases and deaths by over 20%. The epidemic curve is suppressed by at least 50% of people wearing a mask from the start of the outbreak but surges when mask wearing drops to 30% or less. With a slow roll out of vaccines over five months at uptake levels of 20–70%, NPIs use will still be needed and has a greater impact on epidemic control. When vaccine roll out is slow or partial in cities experiencing local transmission of COVID-19, masks and other NPIs will be necessary to mitigate transmission until vaccine coverage is high and complete. Vaccine alone cannot rapidly control an epidemic because of the time lag to two-dose immunity. Even after high coverage, the ongoing need for NPIs is unknown and will depend on long-term duration of vaccine efficacy, the use of boosters and optimized dosage scheduling and variants of concern.
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