Modelling sexually transmitted infections:: The effect of partnership activity and number of partners on R0
Modelling sexually transmitted infections:: The effect of partnership activity and number of partners on R0
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tpb.2007.06.006
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发表时间：
2007-11-01
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Liljeros, Fredrik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Britton, Tom;Nordvik, Monica K.;Liljeros, Fredrik
我们在一个网络人群中模拟性传播感染，在这个网络人群中，个人有不同数量的伴侣，分为稳定和偶然的伙伴关系，在稳定的伙伴关系中传播的风险更高。一个人的两种类型的合作伙伴的数量定义了它的程度，和社区中的程度指定的程度分布。对于这个结构化网络人群，定义了一个简单的疾病传播模型，并推导出基本繁殖数R-0，R-0是个体在早期引起的新感染的平均数量，具有大小偏差（即偏向具有许多伴侣的个体）。流行病阶段。首先考虑同性恋人口，然后考虑异性恋人口。异性恋模型是从瑞典哥特兰岛的性活动人口普查数据拟合。主要的经验发现是，对于相关的传播率，所谓的超级传播者对R-0的影响被高估时，不承认不同类型的伙伴关系。(C)2007爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
We model a sexually transmitted infection in a network population where individuals have different numbers of partners, separated into steady and casual partnerships, where the risk of transmission is higher in steady partnerships. An individual's number of partners of the two types defines its degree, and the degrees in the community specify the degree distribution. For this structured network population a simple model for disease transmission is defined and the basic reproduction number R-0 is derived, R-0 being a size-biased (i.e. biasing individuals with many partners) average number of new infections caused by individuals during the early stages of the epidemic. First a homosexual population is considered and then a heterosexual population. The heterosexual model is fitted to data from a census survey on sexual activity from the Swedish island of Gotland. The main empirical finding is that, for relevant transmission rates, the effect that so-called superspreaders have on R-0 is over-estimated when not admitting for different types of partnerships. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.