Storylines of Atmospheric Circulation Change for European Regional Climate Impact Assessment
Storylines of Atmospheric Circulation Change for European Regional Climate Impact Assessment
复制标题
欧洲区域气候影响评估的大气环流变化的故事情节
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-16-0807.1
复制
发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
T. Shepherd
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Zappa;T. Shepherd
人们越来越有兴趣了解不同的全球变暖目标的区域影响。然而，一些区域气候影响取决于大气环流，其对气候变化的反应仍然存在很大的不确定性，在多模式集合预测中无法从概率意义上解释。为了解释这些不确定性，本文提出了一种新的方法，将区域气候变化作为碳排放的函数进行分析，并将其应用于CMIP 5模型的未来预测。不同的故事情节是根据区域环流的三个远程驱动因素的反应确定的：全球变暖的热带和极地放大作用以及平流层涡旋强度的变化。作为这种方法的一个例子，它表明，预计冬季地中海降水下降和中欧风增加的严重程度强烈依赖于st.
AbstractThere is increasing interest in understanding the regional impacts of different global warming targets. However, several regional climate impacts depend on the atmospheric circulation, whose response to climate change remains substantially uncertain and not interpretable in a probabilistic sense in multimodel ensemble projections. To account for these uncertainties, a novel approach where regional climate change is analyzed as a function of carbon emissions conditional on plausible storylines of atmospheric circulation change is here presented and applied to the CMIP5 models’ future projections. The different storylines are determined based on the response in three remote drivers of regional circulation: the tropical and polar amplification of global warming and changes in stratospheric vortex strength. As an illustration of this approach, it is shown that the severity of the projected wintertime Mediterranean precipitation decline and central European windiness increase strongly depends on the st...
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Harvey, B. J.;Shaffrey, L. C.;Woollings, T. J.
通讯作者：
Woollings, T. J.