Modelling the impact of curtailing antibiotic usage in food animals on antibiotic resistance in humans.
Modelling the impact of curtailing antibiotic usage in food animals on antibiotic resistance in humans.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.161067
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发表时间：
2017-04
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Woolhouse MEJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
van Bunnik BAD;Woolhouse MEJ
全世界食用动物的抗生素消费量正在增加，并正在接近，如果没有超过人类的消费量的话。经常有人建议，减少食用动物的抗生素消耗量可能会对公众健康有利。尽管这一概念被广泛认为是直觉上显而易见的，但缺乏强有力的量化证据来支持或反驳这一观点。作为解决这一知识鸿沟的第一步，我们开发了一个简单的数学模型，用于探索食用动物消耗抗生素与人类耐药细菌感染水平之间的一般关系。我们调查了限制动物使用抗生素的影响，并确定了哪些模型参数最强烈地决定了这种影响。我们的结果表明，在广泛的情况下，作为一项独立的措施，减少食用动物的抗生素消耗量对人类的抗药性水平几乎没有影响。我们还发现，减少动物对人类的耐药性传播率可能比同等减少食用动物的抗生素消耗量更有效。此外，对任何干预措施的反应在很大程度上取决于从人到动物的传播率，这一方面很少被考虑。
Consumption of antibiotics in food animals is increasing worldwide and is approaching, if not already surpassing, the volume consumed by humans. It is often suggested that reducing the volume of antibiotics consumed by food animals could have public health benefits. Although this notion is widely regarded as intuitively obvious there is a lack of robust, quantitative evidence to either support or contradict the suggestion. As a first step towards addressing this knowledge gap, we develop a simple mathematical model for exploring the generic relationship between antibiotic consumption by food animals and levels of resistant bacterial infections in humans. We investigate the impact of restricting antibiotic consumption by animals and identify which model parameters most strongly determine that impact. Our results suggest that, for a wide range of scenarios, curtailing the volume of antibiotics consumed by food animals has, as a stand-alone measure, little impact on the level of resistance in humans. We also find that reducing the rate of transmission of resistance from animals to humans may be more effective than an equivalent reduction in the consumption of antibiotics in food animals. Moreover, the response to any intervention is strongly determined by the rate of transmission from humans to animals, an aspect which is rarely considered.