Association of meteorological factors with childhood viral acute respiratory infections in subtropical China: an analysis over 11 years
Association of meteorological factors with childhood viral acute respiratory infections in subtropical China: an analysis over 11 years
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DOI：
10.1007/s00705-013-1863-8
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发表时间：
2014-04-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Ji, Wei
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, Zhengrong;Zhu, Yan;Ji, Wei
本研究的目的是更好地了解气象因素对中国常见呼吸道病毒的流行和季节性的影响。通过确定2001年1月至2011年12月期间因七种常见病毒而入院的急性呼吸道感染儿童进行了一项回顾性研究。通过直接免疫荧光试验，对共计42，104份鼻咽样本进行了呼吸道合胞病毒（RSV）、甲型和B型流感病毒（IV-A和IV-B）、副流感病毒1-3型（PIV-1、PIV-2、PIV-3）和腺病毒（ADV）检测。气象数据来自苏州市气象局。用斯皮尔曼等级相关和偏相关分析病毒流行与气象因素的相关性。采用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型和广义线性Poisson模型等多变量时间序列分析方法，研究气象因素对呼吸道病毒感染的影响。RSV和IV-A活性在冬季有明显的高峰，而PIV-3和ADV在夏季有明显的高峰。RSV的发病率与环境温度低有关，PIV-3仅与环境温度高有关。IV-A活性与低温和高相对湿度均相关。ADV活性与高总降雨量相关。在ARIMA模型中，RSV相关的住院是可预测的，平均温度每升高1 A ℃，RSV病例的月数量减少11.25%（95%CI：5.34%至16.79%）。某些呼吸道病毒的季节性可以用气象影响来解释。气象因素对RSV流行的影响可能有助于预测该病毒的活动。
The objective of this study was to obtain a better understanding of the effects of meteorological factors on the prevalence and seasonality of common respiratory viruses in China, which has a subtropical climate. A retrospective study was conducted by identifying children admitted to a hospital with acute respiratory infections due to seven common viruses between January 2001 and December 2011. A total of 42,104 nasopharyngeal samples were tested for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B viruses (IV-A and IV-B), parainfluenza viruses 1-3 (PIV-1, PIV-2, PIV-3), and adenovirus (ADV) by direct immunofluorescence assay. Meteorological data were obtained from Suzhou Weather Bureau. Correlations of viral prevalence with meteorological factors were evaluated using Spearman rank correlation and partial correlation. Multivariate time-series analysis including an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and generalized linear Poisson models was conducted to study the effect of meteorological factors on the prevalence of respiratory virus infection. RSV and IV-A activity showed distinctive winter peak, whereas PIV-3 and ADV peaked in the summer. Incidence of RSV was correlated with low environmental temperature, and PIV-3 only with high temperature. IV-A activity was correlated with both low temperature and high relative humidity. ADV activity was correlated with high total rainfall. In the ARIMA model, RSV-associated hospitalizations were predictable, and the monthly number of RSV cases decreased by 11.25 % (95 % CI: 5.34 % to 16.79 %) for every 1 A degrees C increase in the average temperature. Seasonality of certain respiratory virus may be explained by meteorological influences. The impact of meteorological factors on the prevalence of RSV may be useful for predicting the activity of this virus.