Modelling the spread of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus (BVDV) in a managed metapopulation of cattle herds
Modelling the spread of Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus (BVDV) in a managed metapopulation of cattle herds
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DOI：
10.1016/j.vetmic.2009.09.052
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发表时间：
2010-04-21
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Ezanno, Pauline
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Courcoul, Aurelie;Ezanno, Pauline
在集合种群框架内开发的许多流行病学模型中，假设单个感染个体被引入斑块会感染整个斑块，并且感染个体进入感染斑块的比例随着时间的推移和斑块之间是一致的。如果该方法与快速传播的病原体相关，则不太适用于中度传播的病原体，如牛病毒性腹泻病毒（BVDV），其特征在于贴片内流行率的变异性。我们的目的是研究相邻关系和动物运动对100个牛群管理集合种群中BVDV传播的各自影响。感染动力学由两个离散时间的耦合随机房室模型表示：畜群内模型和畜群间模型。动物的运动是机械模拟的。它们在很大程度上影响BVDV的持续性、感染牛群中的流行率和流行规模。邻里关系只影响流行病的规模。无论相邻关系如何，如果畜群之间没有动物移动，则感染不会在集合种群中持续存在。所提出的模型可以很容易地适应不同的牛群接触结构。(C)2009 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
In numerous epidemiological models developed within a metapopulation framework, it is assumed that a single infected individual introduced into a patch infects the whole patch and that the proportion of infected individuals into infected patches is consistent over time and among patches. If this approach is relevant for rapidly spreading pathogens, it is less appropriate for moderately spreading pathogens, like the Bovine Viral Diarrhoea Virus (BVDV), characterized by a variability in within-patch prevalence. Our objective is to study the respective influence of neighbouring relationships and animal movements on the spread of BVDV in a managed metapopulation of 100 cattle herds. Infection dynamics is represented by two coupled stochastic compartmental models in discrete-time: a within-herd and a between-herd models. Animal movements are mechanistically modelled. They largely influence the BVDV persistence, the prevalence in infected herds and the epidemic size. Neighbouring relationships only influence epidemic size. Whatever the neighbouring relationships, the infection does not persist in the metapopulation without animal movement between herds. The proposed model can be easily adapted for different herd contact structures. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.