On case-crossover methods for environmental time series data
On case-crossover methods for environmental time series data
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DOI：
10.1002/env.809
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发表时间：
2007-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Farrington, C. Paddy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Whitaker, Heather J.;Hocine, Mounia N.;Farrington, C. Paddy
案例交叉方法广泛用于分析健康事件与环境暴露之间关联的数据。近年来，人们提出了几种选择参考周期的方法，并对两种类型的偏差进行了大量讨论：时间趋势引起的偏差和重叠偏差。在本文中，我们重新审视案例交叉方法，重点关注其在案例控制范式中的起源，以便对这些偏差提供新的认识。我们强调基于病例对照逻辑的方法（例如对称双向（SBI）方法）和基于队列逻辑的方法（例如时间分层（TS）方法）之间的区别，其中重叠偏差是暴露系列不可交换性的结果，而基于队列逻辑的方法（例如时间分层（TS）方法）不会出现重叠偏差。我们通过例子表明，TS 方法可能会因残留季节性而遭受严重偏差。该方法可以扩展到控制季节性。然而，在分析共享环境暴露数据时，时间序列回归比案例交叉方法更灵活。我们的结论是，在此类应用中应该采用时间序列回归作为选择方法。版权所有 (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Case-crossover methods are widely used for analysing data on the association between health events and environmental exposures. In recent years, several approaches to choosing referent periods have been suggested, with much discussion of two types of bias: bias due to temporal trends, and overlap bias. In the present paper, we revisit the case-crossover method, focusing on its origin in the case-control paradigm, in order to throw new light on these biases. We emphasise the distinction between methods based on case-control logic (such as the symmetric bi-directional (SBI) method), for which overlap bias is a consequence of non-exchangeability of the exposure series, and methods based on cohort logic (such as the time-stratified (TS) method), for which overlap bias does not arise. We show by example that the TS method may suffer severe bias from residual seasonality. This method can be extended to control for seasonality. However, time series regression is more flexible than case-crossover methods for the analysis of data on shared environmental exposures. We conclude that time series regression ought to be adopted as the method of choice in such applications. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.