Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain
Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain
复制标题
华北平原作物产量和水分利用效率对气候变化的响应
DOI：
10.1016/j.agwat.2009.07.006
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发表时间：
2010-08-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Yang, Chunlin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo, Ruiping;Lin, Zhonghui;Yang, Chunlin
基于IPCC对未来气候变化的预测，探讨了华北平原小麦和玉米产量和水分利用效率对气候变化情景的响应。利用HadCM 3全球气候模式对21世纪世纪气候变化进行预测，利用CLIGEN气候生成器生成部分站点的逐日天气数据，驱动CERES-Wheat和Maize模式。温度升高和CO2增加对小麦和玉米产量的影响是不一致的。在同一情景下，气候变暖导致小麦产量上升，而玉米产量下降。作为一种更可能的情景，B2 A下的气候变化相对于A2 A和A1 B是温和的。21世纪90年代B2 A模式下，不施肥条件下，该地区小麦和玉米平均产量将分别增加9.8%和3.2%。高温不仅影响作物产量，而且对水分利用效率也有积极影响，主要是由于蒸散量增加。CO2增施对产量和水分利用效率有积极影响。如果大气CO2浓度达到近600 ppm，小麦和玉米产量将分别增加38%和12%，水分利用效率将分别提高40%和25%。然而，未来气候变化情景下作物产量的不确定性较大，CO2施肥能否实现仍需进一步研究。(C)2009爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Based on future climate change projections offered by IPCC, the responses of yields and water use efficiencies of wheat and maize to climate change scenarios are explored over the North China Plain. The climate change projections of 21st century under A2A, B2A and A1B are from HadCM3 global climate model.A climate generator (CLIGEN) is applied to generate daily weather data of selected stations and then the data is used to drive CERES-Wheat and Maize models. The impacts of increased temperature and CO2 on wheat and maize yields are inconsistent. Under the same scenario, wheat yield ascended due to climatic warming, but the maize yield descended. As a more probable scenario, climate change under B2A is moderate relative to A2A and A1B. Under B2A in 2090s, average wheat yield and maize yield will respectively increase 9.8% and 3.2% without CO2 fertilization in this region. High temperature not only affects crop yields, but also has positive effect on water use efficiencies, mainly ascribing to the evapotranspiration intensification. There is a positive effect of CO2 enrichment on yield and water use efficiency. If atmospheric CO2 concentration reaches nearly 600 ppm, wheat and maize yields will increase 38% and 12% and water use efficiencies will improve 40% and 25% respectively, in comparison to those without CO2 fertilization. However, the uncertainty of crop yield is considerable under future climate change scenarios and whether the CO2 fertilization may be realized is still needed further research. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.