Comparison of two model based approaches for areal rainfall estimation in urban hydrology
Comparison of two model based approaches for areal rainfall estimation in urban hydrology
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.02.048
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发表时间：
2014-04
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
G. Leonhardt;Siao Sun;W. Rauch;J. Bertrand-Krajewski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Leonhardt;Siao Sun;W. Rauch;J. Bertrand-Krajewski
我们介绍并比较了两种不同的估算城市集水区平均面积降雨强度的方法。这两种方法都基于事先校准的相同的集总水文模型。第一种方法使用逆向模型，即降雨-径流模型的逆公式。降雨强度及其不确定性仅根据径流数据估计。第二种方法是使用贝叶斯方法估计降雨误差模型的参数。它需要测量径流和降雨量。虽然这两种方法在概念上相当不同，但它们处理的是同一个问题- -面积降雨强度的量化及其有关的测量误差- -因此进行比较是有意义的。讨论了两种方法的优缺点。结果表明，这两种方法都能在实际数量级上提供最大强度和总深度的最佳估计，而用反向模型估计降雨量的不确定性较大。
We introduce and compare two different approaches to estimate mean areal rainfall intensity in urban catchments. Both methods are based on the same lumped hydrological model that is calibrated beforehand. The first method uses a reverse model, i.e. an inverse formulation of a rainfall–runoff model. Rainfall intensities and their uncertainties are estimated from runoff data only. The second method estimates parameters of a rainfall error model using a Bayesian approach. It requires measurements of both runoff and rainfall. Although the two approaches are conceptually rather different, they address the same issue – the quantification of areal rainfall intensities and their related measurement errors – and a comparison is hence of interest. The merits and faults of the two methods are discussed. Results show that both methods provide best estimates of hyetographs with maximum intensities and total depths in a realistic order of magnitude, whereas the uncertainty of rainfall estimated with the reverse model is rather large.