Where you Export Matters
Where you Export Matters
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3947176
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发表时间：
2021-09
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
I. Lyubimov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
I. Lyubimov
经济复杂性理论加深了我们对出口多元化的理解。然而，它依赖于可能掩盖重要细节的聚合数据。特别是，这些数据没有考虑到进口商的信息，尽管这些信息可以提供关于特定经济体经济复杂性演变速度的新见解。本文通过将更详细的出口数据纳入分析，介绍了这些新的见解。我发现，较富裕的经济体不仅倾向于出口更复杂的产品，还会将它们出售给更富裕的目的地。我讨论了俄罗斯的情况，它寻求成为一个更复杂的经济体，并通过实施再工业化政策获得技术主权。然而，俄罗斯的复杂产品很少能征服更富裕的市场，而且更为俄罗斯的地理邻国所熟知。我们的发现表明，只要更高水平的财富是一个令人担忧的问题，这种再工业化模式可能就不会有希望。白皮书声称，即使重新设计产业政策，使其更多地取决于出口结果，也不是解决问题的办法，但它是问题的重要组成部分之一。
Economic complexity theory deepens our understanding of export diversification. However, it relies on aggregated data which might disguise important details. In particular, these data do not take information on importers into account even though this information can provide new insights about the pace of economic complexity evolution in a particular economy. The paper introduces these new insights by incorporating more detailed export data into analysis. I find that wealthier economies not only tend to export more sophisticated products, but also sell them to richer destinations. I discuss the case of Russia which seeks to become a more complex economy and gain technological sovereignty by implementing reindustrialization policy. However, Russian complex products rarely conquer richer markets and are better known to Russia’s geographic neighbors. Our findings suggest that such a pattern of reindustrialization might not be promising as long as a higher level of wealth is a concern. The paper claims that even though redesigning industrial policy such that it becomes more conditioned on export outcomes is not a solution to the problem, it is, however, one of its important ingredients.