Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept.
Boom-bust dynamics in biological invasions: towards an improved application of the concept.
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DOI：
10.1111/ele.12822
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发表时间：
2017-08
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
D. Strayer;C. D’Antonio;F. Essl;Mike S. Fowler;J. Geist;S. Hilt;I. Jarić;K. Jöhnk;Clive G. Jones;X. Lambin;Alexander W. Latzka;J. Pergl;P. Pyšek;P. Robertson;M. von Schmalensee;Robert A. Stefansson;J. Wright;J. Jeschke
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文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Strayer;C. D’Antonio;F. Essl;Mike S. Fowler;J. Geist;S. Hilt;I. Jarić;K. Jöhnk;Clive G. Jones;X. Lambin;Alexander W. Latzka;J. Pergl;P. Pyšek;P. Robertson;M. von Schmalensee;Robert A. Stefansson;J. Wright;J. Jeschke
繁荣-萧条动态--人口上升到爆发水平，随后急剧下降--与生物入侵有关，并被认为是不管理麻烦入侵者的理由。然而，繁荣-萧条的动态很少被严格定义，分析或解释。在这里，我们定义了繁荣-萧条动力学，并提供了具体的建议，以改善繁荣-萧条概念的应用。繁荣-萧条动态可能由许多原因引起，有些与入侵密切相关，但另一些则发生在广泛的生态环境中，特别是当环境条件迅速变化时。因此，仅仅通过观察动态很难推断原因或预测未来的轨迹。我们使用模拟数据的测试表明，一个常见的度量用于检测和描述繁荣-萧条的动态，从观察到的峰值下降到随后的低谷，往往严重高估的频率和严重程度的崩溃，并应谨慎使用，如果在所有。我们审查和测试其他更适合描述繁荣-萧条动态的指标。要了解繁荣-萧条动态的频率和重要性，需要对大量、有代表性的长期数据集进行实证研究，这些数据集使用繁荣-萧条的明确定义、适当的分析方法和仔细的解释。
Boom-bust dynamics - the rise of a population to outbreak levels, followed by a dramatic decline - have been associated with biological invasions and offered as a reason not to manage troublesome invaders. However, boom-bust dynamics rarely have been critically defined, analyzed, or interpreted. Here, we define boom-bust dynamics and provide specific suggestions for improving the application of the boom-bust concept. Boom-bust dynamics can arise from many causes, some closely associated with invasions, but others occurring across a wide range of ecological settings, especially when environmental conditions are changing rapidly. As a result, it is difficult to infer cause or predict future trajectories merely by observing the dynamic. We use tests with simulated data to show that a common metric for detecting and describing boom-bust dynamics, decline from an observed peak to a subsequent trough, tends to severely overestimate the frequency and severity of busts, and should be used cautiously if at all. We review and test other metrics that are better suited to describe boom-bust dynamics. Understanding the frequency and importance of boom-bust dynamics requires empirical studies of large, representative, long-term data sets that use clear definitions of boom-bust, appropriate analytical methods, and careful interpretations.