Nitrate aerosols today and in 2030: a global simulation including aerosols and tropospheric ozone
Nitrate aerosols today and in 2030: a global simulation including aerosols and tropospheric ozone
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DOI：
10.5194/acp-7-5043-2007
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Streets, D. G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bauer, S. E.;Koch, D.;Streets, D. G.
由于全球广大地区硝酸盐前体排放量预计增加，硫酸铵气溶胶减少，预计硝酸盐气溶胶在未来大气中将变得更加重要。本研究使用 GISS 气候模型，包括大气气相和气溶胶相化学，以研究当前和未来（2030 年，遵循 SRES A1B 排放情景）的大气成分。进行了一系列敏感性实验，以量化排放和物理气候变化对硝酸盐气溶胶形成的个体影响。我们发现未来的硝酸盐气溶胶负荷在很大程度上取决于氨源中可能发生的变化。此外，导致气溶胶混合的微物理过程在硫酸盐和硝酸盐气溶胶的形成中起着非常重要的作用。分析了硝酸盐气溶胶作为气候变化驱动因素的作用，并考虑到工业化前、当前和未来条件下的其他气溶胶和臭氧强迫。在不久的将来，即 2030 年，硝酸铵辐射强迫约为 - 0.14 W/m(2)，约占净气溶胶和臭氧强迫的 10%。目前的硝酸盐和工业化前的硝酸盐强迫分别为 - 0.11 和 - 0.05 W/m(2)。自工业化以来硝酸盐气溶胶的稳定增加增强了其作为非温室气体强迫剂的作用。然而，与温室气体强迫相比，这种影响仍然很小，因此硝酸盐在未来大气中的主要作用是作为一种空气污染物，在细颗粒模式下，近地表空气年平均浓度在中国上升到3μg/m(3)以上，从而达到硫酸盐气溶胶的污染水平。
Nitrate aerosols are expected to become more important in the future atmosphere due to the expected increase in nitrate precursor emissions and the decline of ammoniumsulphate aerosols in wide regions of this planet. The GISS climate model is used in this study, including atmospheric gas- and aerosol phase chemistry to investigate current and future (2030, following the SRES A1B emission scenario) atmospheric compositions. A set of sensitivity experiments was carried out to quantify the individual impact of emission-and physical climate change on nitrate aerosol formation. We found that future nitrate aerosol loads depend most strongly on changes that may occur in the ammonia sources. Furthermore, microphysical processes that lead to aerosol mixing play a very important role in sulphate and nitrate aerosol formation. The role of nitrate aerosols as climate change driver is analyzed and set in perspective to other aerosol and ozone forcings under pre-industrial, present day and future conditions. In the near future, year 2030, ammonium nitrate radiative forcing is about - 0.14 W/m(2) and contributes roughly 10% of the net aerosol and ozone forcing. The present day nitrate and pre-industrial nitrate forcings are - 0.11 and - 0.05 W/m(2), respectively. The steady increase of nitrate aerosols since industrialization increases its role as a non greenhouse gas forcing agent. However, this impact is still small compared to greenhouse gas forcings, therefore the main role nitrate will play in the future atmosphere is as an air pollutant, with annual mean near surface air concentrations, in the fine particle mode, rising above 3 mu g/m(3) in China and therefore reaching pollution levels, like sulphate aerosols.