Combining probability distributions of sea level variations and wave run-up to evaluate coastal flooding risks
Combining probability distributions of sea level variations and wave run-up to evaluate coastal flooding risks
复制标题
DOI：
10.5194/nhess-18-2785-2018
复制
发表时间：
2018-10-24
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Kahma, Kimmo K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Leijala, Ulpu;Bjorkqvist, Jan-Victor;Kahma, Kimmo K.
为了对极易受到气候变化影响的人口稠密的沿海地区进行安全规划，需要使用工具来估计海平面和波浪同时影响引起的洪水灾害的概率。在本文中，我们提出了一种结合三个不同分量的特定位置概率分布的方法：（1）长期平均海平面变化，（2）短期海平面变化和（3）风生波浪。我们在赫尔辛基群岛的两个地点应用该方法，以获得总水位估计值，代表当前（2050 年和 2100 年）静水位和波浪上升的共同影响。研究地点之间波浪条件的变化导致安全建筑水位差异高达 1 m。芬兰湾平均海平面的上升以及与相关情景相关的不确定性对 2100 年的总水位产生了显着影响。理论波浪上升分布的测试说明了海平面变化和波浪条件的相对幅度对总水位的影响。我们还讨论了我们的方法对其他沿海地区的适用性。
Tools for estimating probabilities of flooding hazards caused by the simultaneous effect of sea level and waves are needed for the secure planning of densely populated coastal areas that are strongly vulnerable to climate change. In this paper we present a method for combining location-specific probability distributions of three different components: (1) long-term mean sea level change, (2) short-term sea level variations and (3) wind-generated waves. We apply the method at two locations in the Helsinki archipelago to obtain total water level estimates representing the joint effect of the still water level and the wave run-up for the present, 2050 and 2100. The variability of the wave conditions between the study sites leads to a difference in the safe building levels of up to 1 m. The rising mean sea level in the Gulf of Finland and the uncertainty related to the associated scenarios contribute notably to the total water levels for the year 2100. A test with theoretical wave run-up distributions illustrates the effect of the relative magnitude of the sea level variations and wave conditions on the total water level. We also discuss our method's applicability to other coastal regions.