Vulnerability assessment of water resources - Translating a theoretical concept to an operational framework using systems thinking approach in a changing climate: Case study in Ogallala Aquifer
Vulnerability assessment of water resources - Translating a theoretical concept to an operational framework using systems thinking approach in a changing climate: Case study in Ogallala Aquifer
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.11.032
复制
发表时间：
2018-02-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Kannan, Narayanan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anandhi, Aavudai;Kannan, Narayanan
水是一种必不可少的自然资源。在许多压力因素中，气候变化正在对水资源系统施加压力，增加了对水资源的需求，并需要进行脆弱性评估。本研究的总体目标是开发一种新的工具，可以将理论概念（水资源的脆弱性（VWR））转化为主要在温度和降水变化以及人口变化（较小程度）下的业务框架。开发的工具有三个阶段，并利用了一种新的系统思维方法。第一阶段：将理论概念转化为研究中确定的特征;第2阶段：将特征操作化为VWR的方法;第3阶段：利用方法开发VWR的概念建模工具：WR-VISTA（使用系统思维方法选择的指标的水资源脆弱性评估概念模型）。具体的创新之处是：1）VWR的重要特征在第一阶段得到识别（2）WR-VISTA结合了两个脆弱性评估框架：欧洲的DPSIR框架和政府间气候变化专门委员会的IPCC框架;（3）在VWR中运用系统思维方法进行指标选择。在堪萨斯（覆盖高平原地区/奥加拉拉含水层，被认为是“世界粮仓”）使用26个中等详细程度的指标演示了开发的应用程序。我们的研究结果表明，西部的国家是脆弱的农业用水和城市用水的东部。开发的工具可以很容易地复制到美国内外的其他地区。由爱思唯尔公司出版
Water is an essential natural resource. Among many stressors, altered climate is exerting pressure on water resource systems, increasing its demand and creating a need for vulnerability assessments. The overall objective of this study was to develop a novel tool that can translate a theoretical concept (vulnerability of water resources (VWR)) to an operational framework mainly under altered temperature and precipitation, as well as for population change (smaller extent). The developed tool had three stages and utilized a novel systems thinking approach. Stage-1: Translating theoretical concept to characteristics identified from studies; Stage-2: Operationalizing characteristics to methodology in VWR; Stage-3: Utilizing the methodology for development of a conceptual modeling tool for VWR: WR-VISTA (Water Resource Vulnerability assessment conceptual model using Indicators selected by System's Thinking Approach). The specific novelties were: 1) The important characteristics in VWR were identified in Stage-1 (target system, system components, scale, level of detail, data source, frameworks, and indicator); 2) WR-VISTA combined two vulnerability assessments frameworks: the European's Driver-Pressu re-State-Impact-Response framework (DPSIR) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's framework (IPCC's); and 3) used systems thinking approaches in VWR for indicator selection. The developed application was demonstrated in Kansas (overlying the High Plains region/Ogallala Aquifer, considered the "breadbasket of the world"), using 26 indicators with intermediate level of detail. Our results indicate that the western part of the state is vulnerable from agricultural water use and the eastern part from urban water use. The developed tool can be easily replicated to other regions within and outside the US. Published by Elsevier B.V.