On estimating the epistemic probability of realizing Q = Pfus/Paux larger than a specified lower bound in ITER
On estimating the epistemic probability of realizing Q = Pfus/Paux larger than a specified lower bound in ITER
复制标题
估计实现 Q = Pfus/Paux 大于 ITER 指定下限的认知概率
DOI：
10.1088/0029-5515/42/7/307
复制
发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
O. Kardaun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
O. Kardaun
给出了一个简化的分析问题的估计的“认知概率”的ITER达到一个功率放大因子Q大于一定的下限。注意力仅限于ITER FEAT和1998年ITER设计的参数。概率框架进行了简要的讨论和分布区间估计Q以下的约束时间的区间估计推导出（a）ITER操作在恒定的聚变输出功率P傅s，和（B）在最大化Q = P傅s/Paux的温度下操作。第二种情况需要通量表面平均能量平衡的径向积分。而不是一个本地的传输模型，一个简单的类的温度分布。结果用图表表示。本文提出了一种推广的熔合三重积温度图。分析的前提是，在情况（a）中的参考工作点，以及在情况（B）中预计可实现的工作温度范围内，满足ITER中达到标准ELMy H模式的条件。文章的实际结论是，在此前提下，ITER-FEAT有一个相当大的认知概率获得普遍的α粒子加热等离子体条件。
A simplified analysis is given of the problem of estimating the ‘epistemic probability’ for ITER to attain a power amplification factor Q larger than a certain lower bound. Attention is restricted to the parameters of ITER-FEAT and the 1998 ITER design. The probabilistic framework is briefly discussed and the distributional interval estimates for Q following from the interval estimates of the confinement time are derived (a) for ITER operation at constant fusion output power P fu s, and (b) for operation at a temperature that maximizes Q = P fu s/Paux. The second situation requires a radial integration of the flux surface averaged energy balance. Instead of a local transport model, a simple class of temperature profiles is used. The results are represented graphically. A generalization of the widely used fusion triple product plot against temperature is suggested. The analysis presupposes that at the reference operating point in situation (a), and in the range of operating temperatures projected to be achievable in situation (b), the conditions for reaching standard ELMy H mode in ITER are met. The practical conclusion of the article is that under this premise ITER-FEAT has a fairly large epistemic probability of obtaining plasma conditions with prevalent alpha particle heating.
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
A. Gibson;T. Sekiguchi;K. Lackner;S. Bodner;R. Hancox
通讯作者：
A. Gibson;T. Sekiguchi;K. Lackner;S. Bodner;R. Hancox
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Shimada, M.;Campbell, D. J.;Sipps, A. C. C.
通讯作者：
Sipps, A. C. C.