Development of a support tool for greenhouse gas emissions control policy to help mitigate the impact of global warming
Development of a support tool for greenhouse gas emissions control policy to help mitigate the impact of global warming
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DOI：
10.1007/bf03354006
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发表时间：
2006-09
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Y. Hijioka;T. Masui;Kiyoshi Takahashi;Y. Matsuoka;H. Harasawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Hijioka;T. Masui;Kiyoshi Takahashi;Y. Matsuoka;H. Harasawa
我们一直在开发一种政策支持工具，AIM/IMPACT[政策]，用于综合评估全球变暖控制目标，包括稳定温室气体浓度、实现这些目标的经济有效的排放途径，以及这些目标的后续影响和风险。在这项研究中，在温室气体稳定约束下，对气候变化和全球变暖影响以及温室气体减排政策的时机进行了定量评估。我们的评估使用了一个估计温室气体最优排放路径的能源经济模型和一个估计该最优排放路径下气候变化对各领域全球变暖影响的影响评估模型。与一切照旧的情况不同，我们的结果显示，为了将温室气体浓度保持在500ppm以下(按体积计算)，到2020年的减排量必须达到3.0GtCeq/年，到2050年的减排量必须达到12.2GtCeq/年，这表明迫切需要一个全面的减排系统。
We have been developing a policy support tool, AIM/impact[policy], for use in the integrated assessment of global warming control targets including the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations, economically efficient emissions paths to realizing these targets, and consequent impacts and risks of these targets. In this study, a quantitative assessment was made of climate changes and global warming impacts, as well as the timing of greenhouse gas reduction policies, under greenhouse gas stabilization constraints. An energy economic model estimating the optimal emissions path for greenhouse gases and an impact assessment model estimating the impacts of global warming in various fields caused by climate changes under this optimal emissions path were used in our assessment. In contrast to the business-as-usual case, our results showed that in order to maintain greenhouse gas concentrations at less than 500ppm (by volume), reduction volumes must be 3,0GtCeq/year by 2020 and 12.2 GtCeq/year by 2050, indicating an urgent need for a full-scale reduction system.