Fractional SIR epidemiological models.
Fractional SIR epidemiological models.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-020-77849-7
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发表时间：
2020-11-30
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Tannenbaum A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Taghvaei A;Georgiou TT;Norton L;Tannenbaum A
本文的目的是建立一个流行病模型的情况下，分数指数的贡献的子种群的发病率。更具体地说，我们质疑流行病学模型的文献中的标准假设，在那里的发病率决定传播的感染被认为是成比例的产品之间的感染和易感的亚群;一个模型，依赖于两个群体之间的强混合和广泛接触的群体成员之间。我们认为，感染者和易感者之间的接触，特别是在流行病的早期阶段，发生在各自亚群之间的边界上（可能是扩散的）。因此，传输速率取决于分数幂的乘积。直觉依赖于感染在地理上集中的细胞中生长的事实，与依赖于易受感染的亚群的完全混合的标准产品模型相反。我们验证了分数指数的假设：（1）通过对允许的疾病传播施加局部结构的图中的疾病传播进行数值模拟，以及（2）通过将模型拟合到意大利、德国、法国和西班牙1月22日至20日至4月30日期间的JHU CSSE COVID-19数据。
The purpose of this work is to make a case for epidemiological models with fractional exponent in the contribution of sub-populations to the incidence rate. More specifically, we question the standard assumption in the literature on epidemiological models, where the incidence rate dictating propagation of infections is taken to be proportional to the product between the infected and susceptible sub-populations; a model that relies on strong mixing between the two groups and widespread contact between members of the groups. We contend, that contact between infected and susceptible individuals, especially during the early phases of an epidemic, takes place over a (possibly diffused) boundary between the respective sub-populations. As a result, the rate of transmission depends on the product of fractional powers instead. The intuition relies on the fact that infection grows in geographically concentrated cells, in contrast to the standard product model that relies on complete mixing of the susceptible to infected sub-populations. We validate the hypothesis of fractional exponents (1) by numerical simulation for disease propagation in graphs imposing a local structure to allowed disease transmissions and (2) by fitting the model to the JHU CSSE COVID-19 Data for the period Jan-22-20 to April-30-20, for the countries of Italy, Germany, France, and Spain.
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影响因子：
44.1
作者：
Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo;Castellano, Claudio;Vespignani, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro
影响因子：
6.5
作者：
VONBERTALANFFY, L
通讯作者：
VONBERTALANFFY, L
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
KELTON, KF;GREER, AL;THOMPSON, CV
通讯作者：
THOMPSON, CV
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Novozhilov, Artem S.
通讯作者：
Novozhilov, Artem S.
DOI：
10.1098/rspa.1927.0118
发表时间：
1927-08-01
期刊：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-CONTAINING PAPERS OF A MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL CHARACTER
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kermack, WO;McKendrick, AG
通讯作者：
McKendrick, AG