The Effect of Air Pollution on Migration: Evidence from China
The Effect of Air Pollution on Migration: Evidence from China
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.3451332
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发表时间：
2017-11
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Shuai Chen;Paulina Oliva;Peng Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shuai Chen;Paulina Oliva;Peng Zhang
本文着眼于空气污染对中国人口迁移的影响，利用五年内逆温平均强度的变化作为中期空气污染水平的外生变化来源。我们的研究结果表明，空气污染是中国移民流入和流出发生重大变化的原因。更具体地说，我们发现，在我们的研究过程中（1996年至2010年）中国发生的空气污染程度的独立变化能够减少50%的流动移民流入，并通过净迁出减少5%的人口。我们发现，这些流入主要是由受过良好教育的人在他们的职业生涯开始，导致中国县的人口和劳动力的社会人口构成的重大变化。我们的结果是强大的不同的规格，包括简单的计数反演工具，不同的天气控制，和不同形式的误差方差。
This paper looks at the effects of air pollution on migration in China using changes in the average strength of thermal inversions over five-year periods as a source of exogenous variation for medium-run air pollution levels. Our findings suggest that air pollution is responsible for large changes in inflows and outflows of migration in China. More specifically, we find that independent changes in air pollution of the magnitude that occurred in China in the course of our study (between 1996 and 2010) are capable of reducing floating migration inflows by 50 percent and of reducing population through net outmigration by 5 percent in a given county. We find that these inflows are primarily driven by well educated people at the beginning of their professional careers, leading to substantial changes in the sociodemographic composition of the population and labor force of Chinese counties. Our results are robust to different specifications, including simple counts of inversions as instruments, different weather controls, and different forms of error variance.