Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature.
Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature.
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季节性，大流行和人畜共患流感的繁殖数量的估计值：对文献的系统评价。
DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-14-480
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发表时间：
2014-09-04
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Finelli L
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Biggerstaff M;Cauchemez S;Reed C;Gambhir M;Finelli L
流感大流行的潜在影响可以通过计算一组传播性参数来评估，其中最重要的是传染数（R），其定义为每个典型感染病例产生的继发病例的平均数量。我们进行了系统回顾，总结了已发表的大流行性或季节性流感以及新型流感病毒（例如 H5N1）的 R 估计值。我们保留并总结了估计大流行性或季节性流感或人类感染新型流感病毒的 R 的论文。检索共找到 567 篇论文。 91 篇论文被保留，另外 20 篇论文从保留论文的参考文献中被确定。 24 项研究报告了 1918 年大流行的 51 个 R 值。 1918 年的中位 R 值为 1.80（四分位数间距 [IQR]：1.47–2.27）。六项研究报告了 7 个 1957 年大流行 R 值。 1957 年的中位 R 值为 1.65（IQR：1.53-1.70）。四项研究报告了 7 个 1968 年大流行 R 值。 1968 年的中位 R 值为 1.80（IQR：1.56–1.85）。 57 项研究报告了 78 个 2009 年大流行 R 值。 2009 年的中位 R 值为 1.46（IQR：1.30-1.70），两波疾病的 R 值相似：第一波为 1.46，第二波为 1.48。 24 项研究报告了 47 个季节性流行病 R 值。季节性流感的中位 R 值为 1.28（IQR：1.19-1.37）。四项研究报告了六种新型流感 R 值。六个 R 值中有四个 <1。这些 R 值代表了可控并导致中度疾病的流行病与导致大量疾病并需要采取强化缓解策略来控制的流行病之间的差异。需要在季节性和新型流感爆发期间持续监测 R，以便在下一次大流行之前记录其变化。本文的在线版本 (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480) 包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
The potential impact of an influenza pandemic can be assessed by calculating a set of transmissibility parameters, the most important being the reproduction number (R), which is defined as the average number of secondary cases generated per typical infectious case. We conducted a systematic review to summarize published estimates of R for pandemic or seasonal influenza and for novel influenza viruses (e.g. H5N1). We retained and summarized papers that estimated R for pandemic or seasonal influenza or for human infections with novel influenza viruses. The search yielded 567 papers. Ninety-one papers were retained, and an additional twenty papers were identified from the references of the retained papers. Twenty-four studies reported 51 R values for the 1918 pandemic. The median R value for 1918 was 1.80 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.47–2.27). Six studies reported seven 1957 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1957 was 1.65 (IQR: 1.53–1.70). Four studies reported seven 1968 pandemic R values. The median R value for 1968 was 1.80 (IQR: 1.56–1.85). Fifty-seven studies reported 78 2009 pandemic R values. The median R value for 2009 was 1.46 (IQR: 1.30–1.70) and was similar across the two waves of illness: 1.46 for the first wave and 1.48 for the second wave. Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R values. The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19–1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1. These R values represent the difference between epidemics that are controllable and cause moderate illness and those causing a significant number of illnesses and requiring intensive mitigation strategies to control. Continued monitoring of R during seasonal and novel influenza outbreaks is needed to document its variation before the next pandemic. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2334-14-480) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.