Palaeoclimatic models help to understand current distribution of Caucasian forest species
Palaeoclimatic models help to understand current distribution of Caucasian forest species
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古气候模型有助于了解高加索森林物种的当前分布
DOI：
10.1111/j.1095-8312.2011.01788.x
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
L. Mumladze
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Tarkhnishvili;A. Gavashelishvili;L. Mumladze
空间和时间上的限制扩散解释了缺乏物种的地区具有潜在的合适的条件。先前的研究表明，冰后期的冰川化已经形成了许多物种的现有范围，但目前还不完全清楚种间差异的范围大小取决于不同的扩散率。推断的冰川避难所的边界是难以验证的，并可能偏向空间分布模型（SDM），考虑冰后期扩散的限制。我们预测了12种高加索森林植物和动物的当前分布，并将推断的冰川避难所的有效地理距离作为额外的预测因素。为了推断冰川避难所，我们测试了目前的SDM的气候变量的分布的基础上的可转移性，并预计到两个气候情景模拟末次冰期最大（LGM）的最可转移的。然后，我们使用海拔作为摩擦表面，计算从推断的避难所到最小成本的距离，并重新计算当前的SDM，将距离作为一个额外的变量。我们比较了初始和最终SDM的预测能力。与物种分布最匹配的古气候模拟被认为是最接近真实古气候的模拟。SDMS纳入避难所的距离进行了显着更好的所有，但一个研究的物种，气候跨学科研究模型（MIROC）的气候模拟提供了一个更令人信服的模式比社区气候系统模型（CCSM）模拟的末次盛冰期气候。我们的研究结果表明，合适的栖息地模型到过去的气候条件的投影可能会产生现实的冰川避难所的边界，目前在研究区域的森林物种的分布与前避难所的位置密切相关。我们推断出亚洲西部有六个主要的森林避难所：（1）科尔喀斯;（2）安纳托利亚西部;（3）金牛座西部;（4）底格里斯河上游;（5）黎凡特;（6）里海盆地南部。模拟避难所的边界比仅从花粉记录推断的避难所边界要宽得多。因此，我们的方法可用于：（1）通过考虑物种的扩散历史来改进当前物种分布模型;（2）利用当前分布数据验证古气候的替代重建。© 2011伦敦林奈学会，林奈学会生物学杂志，2012，105，231 - 248。其他关键词：森林-模糊包络-马哈拉诺比斯距离-冰川后扩散-范围建模-古气候重建-变量选择-西亚。
Spatial and temporal constraints on dispersal explain the absence of species from areas with potentially suitable conditions. Previous studies have shown that post-glacial recolonization has shaped the current ranges of many species, yet it is not completely clear to what extent interspecific differences in range size depend on different dispersal rates. The inferred boundaries of glacial refugia are difficult to validate, and may bias spatial distribution models (SDMs) that consider post-glacial dispersal constraints. We predicted the current distribution of 12 Caucasian forest plants and animals, factoring in the effective geographical distance from inferred glacial refugia as an additional predictor. To infer glacial refugia, we tested the transferability of the current SDMs based on the distribution of climatic variables, and projected the most transferable ones onto two climate scenarios simulated for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We then calculated least-cost distances from the inferred refugia, using elevation as a friction surface, and recalculated the current SDMs incorporating the distances as an additional variable. We compared the predictive powers of the initial with the final SDMs. The palaeoclimatic simulation that best matched the distribution of species was assumed to represent the closest fit to the true palaeoclimate. SDMs incorporating refugial distance performed significantly better for all but one studied species, and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) climatic simulation provided a more convincing pattern of the LGM climate than the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) simulation. Our results suggest that the projection of suitable habitat models onto past climatic conditions may yield realistic boundaries of glacial refugia, and that the current distribution of forest species in the study region is strongly associated with locations of former refugia. We inferred six major forest refugia throughout western Asia: (1) Colchis; (2) western Anatolia; (3) western Taurus; (4) the upper reaches of the Tigris River; (5) the Levant; and (6) the southern Caspian basin. The boundaries of the modelled refugia were substantially broader than the refugia boundaries inferred solely from pollen records. Thus, our method could be used to: (1) improve models of current species distributions by considering the dispersal histories of the species; and (2) validate alternative reconstructions of palaeoclimate with current distribution data. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105, 231‐248. ADDITIONAL KEYWORDS: forests ‐ fuzzy envelopes ‐ Mahalanobis distance ‐ post-glacial dispersal ‐ range modelling ‐ reconstruction of palaeoclimate ‐ variable selection ‐ western Asia.