A fuzzy logic expert system to estimate intrinsic extinction vulnerabilities of marine fishes to fishing
A fuzzy logic expert system to estimate intrinsic extinction vulnerabilities of marine fishes to fishing
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DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2005.01.017
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发表时间：
2005-07-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Pauly, D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cheung, WWL;Pitcher, TJ;Pauly, D
渔业已经成为对海洋鱼类的主要保护威胁。有效保护受威胁物种需要及时确定易受威胁的物种。然而，对于大多数鱼类物种来说，使用传统方法评估灭绝风险是困难的，因为这种方法通常需要的种群数据是不可用的。本文提出了一种综合海洋鱼类生活史和生态特征的模糊专家系统来评估其捕捞的内在脆弱性。我们从描述生物特征和脆弱性之间已知关系的已发表文献中提取启发式规则(以IF-THEN子句表示)。输入和输出变量由模糊集定义，模糊集显式地处理与定性知识相关的不确定性。来自不同证据的结论通过模糊推理和去模糊化过程进行组合。与以前的方法相比，我们的模糊系统提供了与观察到的下降更紧密地关联的脆弱性估计，并且在输入数据要求的灵活性、不确定性的显式表示以及在纳入新知识方面具有优势。该模糊专家系统可作为渔业管理和海洋保护规划的决策支持工具。(C)2005爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
Fishing has become a major conservation threat to marine fishes. Effective conservation of threatened species requires timely identification of vulnerable species. However, evaluation of extinction risk using conventional methods is difficult for the majority of fish species because the population data normally required by such methods are unavailable. This paper presents a fuzzy expert system that integrates life history and ecological characteristics of marine fishes to estimate their intrinsic vulnerability to fishing. We extract heuristic rules (expressed in IF-THEN clauses) from published literature describing known relationships between biological characteristics and vulnerability. Input and output variables are defined by fuzzy sets which deal explicitly with the uncertainty associated with qualitative knowledge. Conclusions from different lines of evidence are combined through fuzzy inference and defuzzification processes. Our fuzzy system provides vulnerability estimates that correlate with observed declines more closely than previous methods, and has advantages in flexibility of input data requirements, in the explicit representation of uncertainty, and in the ease of incorporating new knowledge. This fuzzy expert system can be used as a decision support tool in fishery management and marine conservation planning. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.