Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.006
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发表时间：
2004-04-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Arnell, NW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell, NW
1995年，近14亿人生活在水资源紧张的流域（人均年径流量低于1000m(3)），其中大部分位于西南亚、中东和地中海周边地区。本文利用 SRES 社会经济情景以及由 SRES 排放情景驱动的六种气候模型进行的气候预测，描述了气候变化和人口增长对未来全球和区域水资源压力的相对影响的评估。使用宏观尺度水文模型以 0.5 x 0.5 度的空间分辨率模拟当前和未来气候下的河流径流，并汇总到流域尺度，以估计 SRES 人口预测下 1300 个流域和小岛屿当前和未来的水资源可用性。 A2 故事情节人口最多，其次是 B2，然后是 A 1 和 B I（人口相同）。在没有气候变化的情况下，缺水流域的未来人口取决于人口情景，到 2025 年，这一数字将达到 2.9 至 33 亿； （占世界人口的 36-40%）。到 2055 年，按照 A2 人口未来计算，将有 56 亿人生活在缺水的流域，而在 A1/B1 人口预测下，“仅”有 34 亿人生活在水资源紧张的流域。气候变化加剧了世界上一些径流减少的地区的水资源压力，包括地中海周围、欧洲部分地区、中美洲和南美洲以及非洲南部。在世界其他缺水地区，特别是在南亚和东亚，气候变化增加了径流，但这在实践中可能不是很有好处，因为径流增加往往发生在雨季，而在旱季可能无法获得额外的水。尽管南亚的变化幅度和方向存在差异，但六种气候模式之间的广泛地理变化模式是一致的。 i 到 2020 年代，人口或排放情景之间的影响程度几乎没有明显差异，但不同气候模型之间存在很大差异：预计 374 至 16.61 亿人将经历水资源压力的增加。到 2050 年代，排放情景之间几乎没有什么差异，但不同的人口假设有明显的影响。在A2人口中，1092至27.61亿人的压力有所增加； B2人口范围分别为670-15.38亿。估计值的范围是由于不同气候模型预测的变化模式略有不同。敏感性分析显示，故事情节下人口总数的 10% 变化可能会导致压力增加或减少 15% 至 20% 的人数变化。这些变化对实际水资源压力的影响将取决于未来如何管理水资源。 (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
In 1995, nearly 1400 million people lived in water-stressed watersheds (runoff less than 1000m(3)/capita/year), mostly in south west Asia, the Middle East and around the Mediterranean. This paper describes an assessment of the relative effect of climate change and population growth on future global and regional water resources stresses, using SRES socio-economic scenarios and climate projections made using six climate models driven by SRES emissions scenarios. River runoff was simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5degrees under current and future climates using a macro-scale hydrological model, and aggregated to the watershed scale to estimate current and future water resource availability for 1300 watersheds and small islands under the SRES population projections. The A2 storyline has the largest population, followed by B2, then A 1 and B I (which have the same population). In the absence of climate change, the future population in water-stressed watersheds depends on population scenario and by 2025 ranges from 2.9 to 3.3 billion people; (36-40% of the world's population). By 2055 5.6 billion people would live in water-stressed watersheds under the A2 population future, and "only" 3.4 billion under A1/B1.Climate change increases water resources stresses in some parts of the world where runoff decreases, including around the Mediterranean, in parts of Europe, central and southern America, and southern Africa. In other water-stressed parts of the world-particularly in southern and,eastern Asia-climate change increases runoff, but this may not be very beneficial in practice because the increases tend to come during the wet season and the extra water may not be available during the dry season. The broad geographic pattern of change is consistent between the six climate models, although there are differences of magnitude and direction of change in southern Asia. i By the 2020s there is little clear difference in the magnitude of impact between population or emissions scenarios, but a large difference between different climate models: between 374 and 1661 million people are projected to experience an increase in water stress.By the 2050s there is kill little difference between the emissions scenarios, but the different population assumptions have a clear effect. Under the A2 population between 1092 and 2761 million people have an increase in stress; under the B2 population the range is 670-1538 million, respectively. The range in estimates is due to the slightly different patterns of change projected by the different climate models. Sensitivity analysis showed that a 10% variation in the population totals under a storyline could lead to variations in the numbers of people with an increase or decrease in stress of between 15% and 20%. The impact of these changes on actual water stresses will depend on how water resources are managed in the future. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.