Claims to Legitimacy Matter: Why Sanctions Fail to Instigate Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes
Claims to Legitimacy Matter: Why Sanctions Fail to Instigate Democratization in Authoritarian Regimes
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合法性主张很重要：为什么制裁无法促进威权政权的民主化
DOI：
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Christian von Soest
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Grauvogel;Christian von Soest
国际制裁是冷战后西方外交政策中最常用的推动全球民主化的工具之一。然而，尽管长期受到欧盟、美国和/或联合国制裁的外部压力，白俄罗斯、古巴、厄立特里亚、伊朗、朝鲜和叙利亚等国的非民主统治却被证明极其顽固。在本文中，我们分析了 1990 年至 2011 年新的全球制裁数据集，并评估了哪些国际和国内因素导致了目标政权中非民主统治的持续存在。对 120 次制裁的模糊集定性比较分析 (fsQCA) 的结果为制裁和独裁政权的研究提供了新的见解。最重要的是，如果该政权设法将制裁的存在纳入其合法化战略，制裁就会加强非民主统治。这种“团结一致”效应最常发生在对全体民众实施全面制裁的情况下，这些制裁拥有强烈的合法性，但与制裁发起者的联系有限。
International sanctions have been one of the most commonly used tools of Western foreign policy in the post-Cold War era to instigate democratization globally. However, despite long-term external pressure through sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States and/or the United Nations, nondemocratic rule in cases such as Belarus, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, North Korea and Syria has proven to be extremely persistent. In this paper, we analyze a new global dataset on sanctions from 1990 to 2011 and assess which international and domestic factors account for the persistence of nondemocratic rule in targeted regimes. The results of a fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) of 120 episodes of sanctions provide new insights for the research on both sanctions and authoritarian regimes. Most significantly, sanctions strengthen nondemocratic rule if the regime manages to incorporate their existence into its legitimation strategy. Such a “rally-round-the-flag” effect occurs most often in cases where comprehensive sanctions targeting the entire population are imposed on regimes that enjoy strong claims to legitimacy and have only limited linkages to the sanction sender.