Yen or Yuan? China's Role in the Future of Asian Monetary Integration
Yen or Yuan? China's Role in the Future of Asian Monetary Integration
复制标题
日元还是人民币？
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.354562
复制
发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
1.2
通讯作者：
A. Nabor
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Hefeker;A. Nabor
大多数关于亚洲货币合作的提议都把日元作为一种重要货币赋予了特殊的角色。相反，我们关注的是人民币的潜在作用。越来越明显的是，中国将承担起该地区主导经济体的角色，而且在短短五年内，中国将成为亚洲产品比日本更重要的目的地。这一发展应该赋予人民币及其与其他亚洲货币的汇率一个特殊的角色。人民币不太可能立即占据主导地位，但通过与欧洲货币一体化进程进行比较，似乎有可能设计出一种当前多数货币都有作用、但相对权重会随着时间推移而变化的体系。汇率中间价的演变是亚洲货币一体化进程的典范。
Most proposals for Asian monetary cooperation assign a special role to the Japanese yen as an anchor currency. We focus instead on the potential role of the Chinese renminbi. It becomes increasingly clear that China will assume the role of the dominant economy in the region, and that it will become a more important destination for Asian products than Japan in as little as five years. This development should assign a special role to the Chinese currency and its exchange rate to the other Asian currencies. It is rather unlikely that the renminbi will assume a dominant role immediately but by drawing comparisons with the European monetary integration process, it seems possible to design a system in which most of the present currencies have a role, but where the relative weights shift over time. The evolution of the ERM is a model for the process of Asian monetary integration.