Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations
Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations
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DOI：
10.1111/ecoj.12011
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发表时间：
2013-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Leith, Campbell
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bi, Huixin;Leeper, Eric M.;Leith, Campbell
本文探讨了财政整顿的宏观经济后果，财政整顿的时机和构成基于税收或支出是不确定的。我们发现，财政整固的构成、其持续时间、货币政策立场、政府债务水平，以及对财政整固可能性和构成的预期，都对确定一次财政整固在多大程度上具有扩张性或在稳定政府债务方面取得成功都很重要。我们认为，可能使财政整顿努力具有扩张性的条件不太可能适用于当前的经济环境。
This article explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition either taxor spending based are uncertain. We find that the composition of the fiscal consolidation, its duration, the monetary policy stance, the level of government debt, and expectations over the likelihood and composition of fiscal consolidations all matter in determining the extent to which a given consolidation is expansionary or successful in stabilising government debt. We argue that the conditions that could render fiscal consolidation efforts expansionary are unlikely to apply in the current economic environment.